Housing finds a balance between supply and demand

Although regionally, home prices vary, as a nation, there is little change between this year and last year, with CoreLogic implying price stabilization is the current state of the market.

Healthy_Home_design

Home prices stabilizing

With a 0.6 percent drop in home prices between March 2011 and March 2012 and a 0.6 percent increase in prices from February, CoreLogic’s Home Price Index (HPI) shows that national home prices not only saw the first month-over-month increase since July 2011, the movement up and down is slight, indicating the market has found its bottom. Excluding distressed sales, month-over-month prices increased for the third month in a row. The CoreLogic HPI also shows that year-over-year prices, excluding distressed sales, rose by 0.9 percent in March 2012 compared to March 2011.

“This spring the housing market is responding to an improving balance between real estate supply and demand which is causing stabilization in house prices,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Although this has been the case in each of the last two years, the difference this year is that stabilization is occurring without the support of tax credits and in spite of a declining share of REO sales.”

“While housing prices remain flat nationally, in many markets tighter inventories are beginning to lift home prices,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and chief executive officer of CoreLogic. “This is true in Phoenix, New York and Washington, for example, which all reflect higher home price values than a year ago. A continuation of this trend will be good for our industry across U.S. markets.”

Regional performances vary

As always, all real estate is local and some states continue to perform extremely well while others continue to decline. Including distressed sales, the states with the highest appreciation were Wyoming (+5.9 percent), West Virginia (+5.3 percent), Arizona (+5.1 percent), North Dakota (+4.7 percent) and Florida (+4.5 percent) and excluding distressed sales, the top performers for March were Idaho (+5.4 percent), North Dakota (+5.1 percent), South Carolina (+4.7 percent), Montana (+3.5 percent) and Kansas (+3.4 percent).

Not everyone had such stellar results, however, as CoreLogic reports that including distressed sales, the states with the greatest depreciation were Delaware (-10.6 percent), Illinois (-8.3 percent), Alabama (-8.0 percent), Georgia (-7.3 percent) and Nevada (-5.8 percent), and excluding distressed sales, the poorest performers were Delaware (-7.6 percent), Alabama (-4.1 percent), Nevada (-3.9 percent), Vermont (-3.9 percent) and Rhode Island (-2.9 percent).

Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to March 2012) was -33.7 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -24.5 percent. The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines including distressed transactions are Nevada (-59.9 percent), Arizona (-48.6 percent), Florida (-48.1 percent), Michigan (-45.1 percent) and California (-42.7 percent). Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 57 are showing year-over-year declines in March, eight fewer than in February.

1 Housing finds a balance between supply and demand
2 Housing finds a balance between supply and demand
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4 Housing finds a balance between supply and demand

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Further Proof the Real Estate Market Is Coming Back

Last week, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Sales Report which showed that contracted sales were 12.8% higher than the same month last year and higher than any time since sales were impacted by the Homebuyers’ Credit back in April of 2010. The index stood at 101.4 which represents a level that is “historically healthy” (see methodology below).

Here is a graph showing pending sales over the last twelve months:

METHODOLOGY (as per NAR)

The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales; it coincides with a level that is historically healthy.

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Short Sales Map: Percentage Of Sales

Short-Sale-Percentages

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How is the Bellevue Market?

real estate updateHow’s the market? I get asked that daily! Which one? The resale market? The rental market? The investor market? Let’s look at just east of Lake Washington.

In Bellevue 66.2% of properties  in all price points were in contract last month.

bellevue

In the more affordable price point ($0.00 – $500,000.00), 100% of homes were in contract. Yup! 100%!

bellevue 2

In the Redmond at the more affordable price point ($0.00 – $400,000.00), 71.4% of homes were in contract. Redmond

In these two markets, the sellers are in control – at least for now.

WE NEED INVENTORY! If you know someone who tried to sell in the past but needs to sell now, connect me with them. I want to help.

After 23 Moves, a Couple Finds Their Forever Home

forever-homeDream Come True

Chills ran up my arms while I watched the crew roll my beautiful old home, creaking and groaning, off its crumbling stacked-sandstone foundation and onto rails set up in the side yard. I knew we had to pour a concrete foundation to save the 1901 house, but that didn’t mean I had to like it. A few nerve-racking hours later, it was safe and sound on its temporary resting place. What a relief! My husband, Dennis, who has decades of home-building experience, had planned everything out to the inch, so I should have known he and the crew would get it right, but it was a scary ordeal. After all, this wonderful old house was my dream come true, and I really didn’t like seeing it perched perilously off the ground.

See, for years I routed my morning walks through the historic district of our mountain town of Bozeman, Montana, imagining what the interiors of the 19th- and 20th-century homes must be like. While visions of my very own old bungalow danced in my head, I never really believed I could talk Dennis into the idea of "rectifying someone else’s mistakes," as he puts it. But after 23 moves during his 29-year career, he promised the next move would be my choice. I jumped at the offer, dragging him off to tour several old houses on the market.

Shown: The renovated Dutch Colonial Revival’s red shutters pop against new cedar shingles. Porch railings and a portico entry mimic the home’s original woodwork.

Read the rest here at ThisOldHouse.com

Housing Crunch Coming for Older Americans

baby boomers looking to get more out of retirement_3511_800493667_0_0_7036892_300By 2050, the population of Americans 65 and older will more than double and is expected to grow at a faster rate than any other age group, according to U.S. Census data. By that time, one in five Americans will be over the age of 65, and a new report says that growing population will likely face increasing difficulty in finding suitable housing to meet their needs.

The report from the Center for Housing Policy (“Housing an Aging Population — Are We Prepared?”) warns a severe housing cost burden is looming for the country as the older adult population soars.

Older adults are more likely than younger adults to spend more than half their income on housing, the study found. Home owners who are 65 and older are more likely than younger households to have their mortgages paid off, but other housing-related costs continue to bite into their more limited incomes. Property taxes, home maintenance, and utility costs continue to be a burden to even mortgage-free home owners, the study says.

“As the older population grows, meeting the housing needs of older adults is certain to become a significant challenge across the nation,” says Rodney Harrell, a policy adviser at AARP’s Public Policy Institute. “States and communities need to effectively respond by adopting policies that ensure adequate, affordable housing for people of all ages.”

The report calls for a variety of housing to meet the needs of older adults, including a growth in assisted-living residences, continuing care retirement communities, and congregate housing. The authors also urge for the availability of housing grants and loans to assist with modifying a current home so older adults can age-in-place as well as property tax abatement or housing voucher programs to help alleviate housing costs.

Source: “Growing Ranks of Older Adults Face Housing Crunch,” RISMedia (April 8, 2012)

Shift happens! Local Market Update

ctrl-shift-key-lampShift happens! We are watching it live and in action! Last year distressed properties made up 25% of active listings, this year it is 17%. Pending sales were 51% distressed homes and this year they comprise only 18% of pended sales .

Fueling the market is better job news, low interest rates, improved consumer confidence, increasing rental rates, spring weather, some positive press and 4 years of pent up demand.

Units pending in NWMLS were second to 2006 numbers. Multiple offers abound! This demand is stabilizing prices in many areas and some neighborhoods are experiencing increasing prices. Some homes that went off market last year and relisted recently have sold quickly.

Holding the market inventory back are homeowners with little or no equity. People who would have been considering a move based on past turnover rates are staying put, and those who do not know the market is turning. Appraisals may be tricky with prices creeping up quickly in areas of little or no inventory.

Although median prices still show an overall decline, in some Several Eastside areas increases were strong, 9 to over 15%. City center areas experienced significant change, 11-31% increases in median price over last year!

Some homeowners may not be aware of the market improvements and the fact that according to Lennox Scott “Close to job centers, 45% of new listings are selling within a single month.”

Pending sales would likely be higher if more inventory was available to anxious and motivated buyers.

Help spread the news – I’m here to help.

 

Residential

Condo

Current Residential Active Eastside Listings

1651

640

Current Residential Active King County Listings

7590

2910

New Eastside/King Listings in The Month

919/2699

268/716

% of change in Active Listings 2011-2012 East/King

-33.96%/-34.41

-39.45/-40.82

Pending Eastside 2012

963 (+29.09%)

341 (+37.5%)

Closed Eastside 2012

527 (+8.88)

188 (+35.25)

Closed King 2012

1642 (+7.67)

440 (+22.22)

Median Sales Price Eastside/King

$470,000/330,000

$209,975/175,000

% Change in Median Price Eastside/King

-5.46/4.35

-12.51/-22.05

What It Means To Be an ‘EXPERT’ in Real Estate

If you are either buying or selling a home in today’s market, you need a real estate expert. However, we must realize what the term ‘expert’ actually means. An expert in any area cannot give perfect advice as no one can predict the future. But they can give excellent advice based on their insight into their field.

If you go to an attorney with a legal challenge, he/she will look over your case and give you your options. They realize they cannot guarantee the outcome of any of the options. Still, they give the best advice possible and allow you to decide the option with which you feel most comfortable. They then will put together a strategy which hopefully will bring about the most favorable conclusion.

If you go to a doctor with a serious ailment, he/she will give you your options and work with you to develop the best treatment program. They cannot guarantee any program’s success. They will, however, monitor your progress and adjust your treatments or medications. They will stand next to you until the best result is achieved.

Real estate is no different. A true real estate professional will understand your options and simply and effectively explain them to you and your family. Once you chose an option, they will strategize a plan to help you accomplish your goals. They will standby you as the process evolves and will help you make the necessary adjustments if necessary.

They cannot see the future any better than doctors or attorneys and thus their advice will never be perfect. However, just like those other professionals, an expert agent will give you excellent advice that will bring about the best possible outcome.

By the KCM crew

Consumer Attitudes Stabilize, Positivity Spreads

PositivityAmericans’ concerns about key economic and housing issues are beginning to subside, according to results from Fannie Mae’s February 2012 National Housing Survey.

Consumers’ attitudes have stabilized across most indicators—including personal finances, housing, and employment—demonstrating their sense that downside risks have abated somewhat compared to late summer and fall of 2011.

While Americans’ confidence in the direction of the economy has been the most pronounced (35 percent think that the economy is on the right track, up 19 percentage points since November, and 57 percent think the economy is on the wrong track, down 18 percentage points since November), their confidence about personal financial situations, household income, and household expenses, as well as attitudes about homeownership and renting is holding at steady levels.

At the same time, Americans’ concern about losing their job in the next 12 months has stabilized since the late fall, with 76 percent of Americans saying they are not concerned in February 2012, compared to 70 percent in November 2011.

“The pickup in the pace of hiring over the past few months has helped soothe consumer concerns, lifting their moods regarding their personal finances, the direction of the economy, and their views on the housing market,” says Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. “As a result, we’ve seen more potential for economic upside, creating a more balanced near-term outlook.”

Survey Highlights

The Economy and Household Finances

The rise in confidence in the economy’s direction continued this month, with 35 percent responding that they think the economy is on the right track, a 5 percentage point increase from January. The percentage of respondents who say the economy is on the wrong track dropped to 57 percent, a decline of 6 percentage points.

Only 12 percent think that their personal financial situation will worsen in the next 12 months, a 3 percentage point drop from January and the lowest value in over a year.

Sixteen percent of respondents say their income is significantly lower than it was 12 months ago (down 1 percentage point since January), while 63 percent say it has stayed the same (up 1 percentage point since January).

Thirty-three percent say their expenses have increased significantly over the past 12 months, a 3 percentage point decrease from last month and the lowest level in the past 12 months.

Homeownership and Renting

On average, Americans expect home prices to increase by 0.8 percent over the next 12 months (down slightly since last month).

Twenty-eight percent of respondents expect home prices to increase over the next 12 months (consistent with last month), while 15 percent say they expect home prices to decline (down 1 percentage point since last month). Fifty-three percent say prices will stay the same.

Ten percent of Americans say that mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months, a 2 percentage point increase from last month.

The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell rose by 3 percentage points to 13 percent, the highest level in over a year, while the percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy dropped 1 percentage point to 70 percent this month.

On average, respondents expect home rental prices to increase by 3.5 percent over the next 12 months, a slight increase since January.

Forty-five percent of respondents think that home rental prices will go up, a 2 percentage point increase from last month, while 3 percent expect them to go down, a 2 percentage point decrease from last month and the lowest value in over a year.

Sixty-five percent of respondents say they would buy their next home if they were going to move, up 1 percentage point since last month, while 29 percent say they would rent, down 1 percentage point versus last month.

The most detailed consumer attitudinal survey of its kind, the Fannie Mae National Housing Survey polled 1,003 Americans via live telephone interview to assess their attitudes toward owning and renting a home, mortgage rates, homeownership distress, the economy, household finances, and overall consumer confidence. Homeowners and renters are asked more than 100 questions used to track attitudinal shifts (findings are compared to the same survey conducted monthly beginning June 2010). Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to stabilize the housing market in the near-term, and provide support in the future.

For more information, visit www.fanniemae.com