GenY is finally in a mood to buy (houses)

Family-leaving-houseThe Millennial generation is about 90 million strong—forming the largest demographic wave in the country’s history—and some reports suggest they’re readying for home ownership. 

Millennials’ entrance into home ownership has been delayed due to the recession, high unemployment, and high student loan debt. They’ve been living in their parents’ homes, as well as delaying marriage and having children, surveys show. But the pent-up demand from this generation is starting to surface, says Fred Ehle, vice president for PulteGroup.

Homebuilders, like PulteGroup and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate, recently revealed surveys of what Millennials want in their future homes. In general, the surveys reveal that this generation isn’t wowed by luxury and prefers technology and flexible space.

Pulte Homes found in its research that more than half of Millennials who decided to buy a home last year from the homebuilder said their main reason was to invest and build equity.

As for what they’re looking for in a home, they appreciate an efficient use of space, an open layout for entertaining, ample storage space, and outdoor space that extends their living areas, according to the Pulte survey of 531 adult renters between the ages of 18 and 34.

“What may be different about this buyer is that they may have more stuff,” says Fred Ehle, vice president for PulteGroup. “It’s different kind of stuff: technological gadgets, gaming. They also do work from home.”

The Better Homes and Gardens survey of 1,000 adults ages 18 to 35 found that Millennials don’t like traditional floor plans and prefer unique spaces. They like to do home improvements themselves and are “fix-it” types.

One in five said that “home office” is a better suited name for their dining room, according to the Better Homes and Gardens survey. What’s more, 43 percent said they want to transform their living room into a home theater.

The survey also showed they’d rather have extra space in their kitchen for a TV than a second oven. Nearly two-thirds of those surveyed say they wouldn’t purchase a home without up-to-date tech capabilities.

Source: “GenY is finally in a mood to buy (houses),” USA Today

State-Level Mortgage Interest Deduction Statistics

The tax benefits of the mortgage interest deduction (MID) are primarily targeted to the middle class. According to 2012 Congressional estimates, 65.4 percent of the tax benefit is collected by households who have economic income of less than $200,000.

Of course, the claims for the MID are going to vary state-to-state given differences in house prices and other costs of living, household incomes, and tax items such as property taxes or state income/sales taxes, which in part determine whether a homeowner claims the standard deduction.

Fortunately, the Internal Revenue Service publishes state-level data of tax statistics. And these state level data, for which the income classifier is equal to adjusted gross income (AGI), illustrate the degree to which MID-benefiting taxpayers are concentrated in the middle class.

mid_200k-2The map above reports the share of taxpayers who claimed the MID on 2010 federal income tax return (the most recent data available) and who also report less than $200,000 in adjusted gross income. Not surprisingly, the share tends to drop somewhat in high cost states, such as New York and California, for which household incomes tend to be higher. Nationally for 2010, 91 percent of taxpayers claiming the MID has an AGI of less than $200,000.

Of course, income, homeownership status, and tax characteristics are not fixed across one’s life-cycle. For example, interest payments for a fixed rate mortgage are larger in the early years of a mortgage, thus the potential deduction amount for the MID is higher for recent homebuyers.

As a result of this life-cycle effect, many homeowners benefit from the MID for a series of years and then cease claiming the deduction as their interest payments fall and the standard deduction becomes a better deal. For this reason, the often cited statistic that only a quarter of taxpayers benefit from the MID is misleading. In fact, this claim should be qualified as “in a given year,” given the life-cycle impact.

By merging IRS data with Census American Community Survey data (both for 2010), we can estimate the more useful statistic of how many homeowners with a mortgage benefit from the MID in a given year. Nationally, 73 percent of homeowners with a mortgage claimed the MID on their income tax returns for tax year 2010.

It is important to note that this number is not an accounting of the percentage of homeowners who benefit from the MID during their tenure of homeowners. That percentage would be higher given life-cycle effects, but cannot be estimated without panel data of income tax returns.

View this original post on the NAHB blog, Eye on Housing

Real Estate Update: Expecting the Healthiest Spring Season Since 2007

orange-county-housing-market.jpgFreddie Mac recently released its U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook through March showing that as we head into the spring home buying season, continued low mortgage rates, increasing house prices, and gradually improving consumer confidence will help support increased home sales. A short preview video and the complete March 2013 U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook are available here.

Outlook Highlights

• Compared to 2012, expect home sales to be up 8 to 10 percent for 2013.

• Expect housing starts to increase to 950,000 units for 2013, compared to 780,000 in 2012.

• In 2012, real estate added $1.5 trillion to balance sheets, and residential mortgage debt outstanding increased by 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, indicating household deleveraging might be drawing to a close.

• Because of sequestration spending reductions, expect the unemployment rate in 2013 to average about 7.8 percent, essentially flat for the year or about 0.25 percentage points higher than it otherwise would have been.

• Regardless, the housing wealth effect is taking hold in the broader market which should translate into the healthiest spring home buying season since 2007.

“History shows us not all economic recoveries are created equal and consumer confidence mirrors this fact,” says Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist.

“With the spring home buying season upon us, the recent highs in the stock market are a welcome signal of better times ahead. But it will be the gradually declining unemployment rate and steadily improving housing market that will deliver broad-based economic benefits for Americans and, in turn, support the overall recovery.”

For more information, visit www.FreddieMac.com

Should Your Buyers Increase Their Offer?

by THE KCM CREW 

home ownershipLimited inventory and a very strong demand for housing has created an environment where bidding wars are commonplace in today’s real estate market. Homes priced properly are getting multiple offers within a short time of coming to market. This brings about a dilemma for the agent: How should they advise their client who is about to make an offer when other offers will also be presented?

Over the last several years, there wasn’t any pressure on the buyer to adjust their offer for three reasons:

  1. There were plenty of homes for sale
  2. Prices were falling
  3. Mortgage interest rates were falling

They buyer could find another home easily for probably less money and a lower mortgage rate. There was no downside to not ‘upping the ante’. However, in today’s market, things have dramatically changed.

HOUSING INVENTORY

A normal real estate market has between 5-6 months worth of inventory. Over the last several years, the inventory of homes for sale had skyrocketed to 10 months. Most buyers in almost any price range had a multitude of houses to choose from. Today, the national month’s supply of inventory has fallen below five months. In many markets, there is not enough housing inventory to satisfy the current demand.

Conclusion: If the buyer loses the house they are bidding on, there is no guarantee they will find a similar home anytime soon.

HOME PRICES

Becausemof the limited inventory, home prices are again appreciating. The Case Shiller Pricing Index revealed that house prices rose by 6.8% in 2012. Experts are projecting home prices to increase by 5% to 8% in 2013.

Conclusion: If the buyer doesn’t get this house, there is a good likelihood that a similar home will cost more in the future.

MORTGAGE RATES

The ‘cost’ of a home to a buyer is determined by the price of the house and the expense associated with the financing. Mortgage rates are projected to inch up in 2013. In a recent forecast, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicted that rates could climb as high as 4.3% by the end of the year.

Conclusion: If interest rates do inch up, the ‘cost’ of the next home could be impacted significantly.

Bottom Line

If a buyer truly loves the house they are bidding on, it probably makes sense to raise their bid now instead of waiting for another dream house to appear.

3 Financial Reasons to Buy a Home NOW! (Part III)

This week, we are going to look at the three financial reasons to buy a home now instead of waiting: prices are rising, interest rates are increasing and rents are skyrocketing. – The KCM Crew

Part III – Rents Are SkyrocketingRent-Growth

Whether you own or rent, you will have a monthly housing expense. The question is how that expense will change in the future. When you purchase a home, for the most part, you lock-in that monthly housing expense for the length of the mortgage you take (15 or 30 years for example). When you rent a home, your housing expense is impacted by movements in the supply and demand for rental properties.

Historically, residential rental rates increase by 3.2% on an annual basis. However, in the current housing environment, there is an increasing demand for residential rental properties. This increase in demand has dramatically impacted rates. Zillow, in their most recent report, revealed that rental rates in the U.S. increased by 4.5% over the last twelve months. Other studies have projected rental rate increases of 4-5% over the next few years.

The only way to have control of your housing expense is to buy.

But Isn’t Buying Much More Expensive Than Renting?

Not right now! As a matter of fact, with prices down and mortgage rates at historic lows, it is LESS EXPENSIVE to buy than rent in most areas. In a recent reportTruliarevealed it is cheaper to buy than rent in ALL of America’s largest regions.

According to Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist:

“People who didn’t buy a home last year may have missed the bottom of the market, but they haven’t completely missed the boat. Buying remains cheaper than renting in all 100 large metros. Even buyers who can’t get today’s lowest mortgage rates will still find that buying makes more financial sense than renting in nearly all local markets.”

However, Kolko went on to say that this opportunity may soon disappear:

“Although buying a home is still cheaper than renting, the gap is closing. In 2013, home prices should rise faster than rents, and mortgage rates are likely to rise in the next year as the economy improves. By next year, buying could be more expensive than renting in some housing markets, even for people with the best credit.”

Again, the only way to lock-in your monthly housing expense is to take that decision out of the hands of a landlord by owning. With both prices and interest rates set to increase, the best time to buy is right now.

by THE KCM CREW

3 Financial Reasons to Buy a Home NOW! (Part II)

This week, we are going to look at the three financial reasons to buy a home now instead of waiting: prices are rising at an accelerated rate, interest rates are increasing and rents are skyrocketing. – The KCM Crew

Part II – Interest Rates Are Increasing

rates diceA big component in the cost of a home is the mortgage interest rate a purchaser pays. Understanding where rates are headed will help in making a decision whether to buy now or wait.

So, Where Are Rates Headed?

No one can know for sure. The Fed has been artificially holding rates down to stimulate the economy. However, as the economy improves, many experts expect rates to creep up. As an example, HSH Associates, the nation’s largest publisher of mortgage and consumer loan information, recently explained:

“The stronger the economy becomes, the higher rates may grind; the Federal Reserve is keeping them low to goose the economy, but an economy responding to the Fed’s medicine will soon see less of a need for it in order to function. If not otherwise manipulated, higher rates are the natural result of a growing economy, as rising demand for available credit supply and concerns about inflation allow costs to rise.”

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) agrees. They were quoted in HousingWire late last year regarding their thoughts on where rates would be headed in 2013.

“After reaching record lows in 2012, mortgage rates are expected to creep up slowly in 2013, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicted.”

In the MBA’s latest Mortgage Finance Forecast they forecast that the 30 year interest rate will be 4.3% by the end of the year. This represents an increase of almost a full percentage point from the 3.4% rate available at the end of 2012.

Mortgage-PaymentsFor example, we show the impact a one percent increase in rate will have on the monthly principal and interest payment on a $200,000 mortgage.

Freddie Mac’s Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reveals that rates have increased by 2/10ths of a percentage point already this year.

As we mentioned, no one knows for sure where rates will be a year from now. But, many experts think they may be as much as a point higher. With rising residential real estate prices and the possibility of higher mortgage rates, waiting to buy a home makes no sense in our opinion.

Tomorrow, we will look at skyrocketing rents.

by THE KCM CREW

3 Financial Reasons to Buy a Home NOW! (Part I)

This week, we are going to look at the three financial reasons to buy a home now instead of waiting: prices are rising at an accelerated rate, interest rates are increasing and rents are skyrocketing. – The KCM Crew

Part I – Prices Are Rising at an Accelerated Rate

prices-upThe price of a home is the major consideration when deciding whether or not it makes financial sense to purchase a house. Experts are not only projecting that house values will increase in 2013. They are also more optomistic in the level of appreciation they are projecting as the market begins to heat up. Here are some examples:

The Home Price Expectation Survey

The latest survey of a nationwide panel of 118 economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists reveals they project home values to end 2013 up an average of 4.6% according to the first quarter. This is after they had projected a 3.1% increase just three months ago.

Bank of America

In a report titled, Someone Say House Party?, Bank of America analysts revised their projections upward:

“Home prices continue to show momentum amid shrinking inventory and record high affordability, prompting us to revise up our original forecast of 4.7% for home prices this year. We now expect national home prices, as defined by the S&P Case Shiller home price index, to increase 8% this year.”

Capital Economics

According to a report in DSNewsCapital Economics also upgraded their prediction:

“Strong demand and tight inventory have brought existing home sales back to ‘normal’ levels, and further gains are possible, according to the latest market report from Capital Economics. Additionally, market conditions may prompt lenders to “loosen the purse strings slightly” and lend a little more freely.

These conditions, combined with broader economic indicators, lead Capital Economics to revise its previous forecast of a 5% price gain this year up to 8%.”

Morgan Stanley

In an article from HousingWireMorgan Stanley joined the party:

“Strong momentum in home prices as well as housing activity gave Morgan Stanley analysts enough confidence to upgrade their home price appreciation projections to roughly 7% (from 5%) for 2013, according to its latest global securitized credit report…

“The momentum in most metrics of housing activity is running well ahead of the pace we had expected,” said James Egan, Jose Cambronero and Vishwanath Tirupattur, analysts for Morgan Stanley.”

Not only are prices projected to appreciate. Experts are actually revising their projections upward as demand maintains its momentum.

Tomorrow, we will look at increasing interest rates.

by THE KCM CREW

Rent or Buy: How they stack up

rent-or-buyAccording to Trulia’s 2013 Rent vs. Buy Report, buying is cheaper than renting in the top 100 metro areas across the nation says Forbes. While asking home prices climbed 7.0 percent last year, rent went up by 3.2 percent. Currently, it is 44 percent cheaper to buy versus rent, compared to 46 percent one year ago. Low mortgage rates have contributed to housing affordability. Households can save more dollars buying over renting in the Midwest than in San Francisco, Honolulu, San Jose, and New York, where the savings gap is narrower.

Buying is a great option when these key factors apply:

  1. Low-interest mortgage rates are available;
  2. Households itemize deductions on tax returns, including the mortgage interest and property tax payments for first and second homes;
  3. Households stay in the home three years or longer, because buying and selling a home incurs settlement or closing costs that may be recouped after that period.

Buying is 44 percent lower than renting for families that stay for 7 years, 35 percent for those staying 5 years, and 20 percent for 3-year inhabitants.

The Bipartisan Policy Center forecasts that five to six million new renter households will emerge over the next decade due in part to the low inventory of homes, according to HousingWire. Barry Zigas, Director of Housing Policy for Consumer Federation of America, said that even though young households want to purchase, the current housing supply can’t support that demand. Tighter credit, more substantial down payments, and decreased wealth among new households also contribute to the rise in rentership.

A research study from Florida International University concludes that the U.S. is trending toward becoming a renter nation even though the financial and non-financial benefits of homeownership are still tangible for many households. While buying is a good option for most, it is particularly positive for those who plan on staying in a home for more than three years or who are looking for rental properties to grow their wealth over time.

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