What is Ahead for Housing?

kids at home

5.9 Million young adults living with their parents! This trend is out of line with historical norms. As the economy continues to improve, we will see this number change.

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The reality is that those young adults DO want to own their own home. The dream of home ownership has been impacted by the economic challenges faced over the past few years. This desire will come to fruition moving forward.

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The data also tells us that those young adults are forming households and getting back out on their own. Human nature desires for autonomy and the ability to set up our own place.

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Many have made the argument that renting is better than owning. While for some that may be true depending on their location, time they will be in said location, life circumstances, the numbers have swung back to owning as the way to go for many.

While no one wants to return to the frenzy of 2003-2005, we are seeing in many markets a flip towards a seller controlled market. Buyers need to be ready to pull the trigger when the right place is available for them.

Let me know how I can help. Email me.

source: KCM

Buyer Urgency Expected to Drive 2013

164ASPbue973894bevHome shoppers will likely have more urgency in the new year, wanting to buy before home prices rise even more.

Home prices are edging up in most markets, and buyers are taking notice. Buyer surveys recently have shown that home shoppers expect home prices to continue to inch up, and they want to cash in before they rise too much higher.

“Every single thing about housing is flashing green” with household formation rising, inventory falling, and affordability hovering at record highs, James Dimon, chief executive of J.P. Morgan Chase told CNBC last month.

In 2013, rising rents are expected to push more renters to buy, The Wall Street Journal reports. Also, investors who’ve had a big appetite for housing in recent years may start to decrease their share in some markets that have seen prices rise, such as Phoenix, and focus on other markets still in recovery mode, like Chicago and Atlanta.

“Rising prices could eventually encourage more sellers to put their homes on the market, which would help boost demand even further,” The Wall Street Journal reports.

To meet the expected increase in demand in 2013, some real estate companies are going on a hiring spree. For example, Redfin says it plans to increase its 400 agents nationally by 50 percent by the end of January after having to send about half of its referrals to other companies earlier this year because demand outstripped its supply of agents.

Source: “2013: How Rising Prices Could Boost Housing Demand,” The Wall Street Journal

Seattle ranks No. 7 for investment, development, homebuilding

7Seattle ranks No. 7 in the nation for investment, development, and homebuilding, according to the Urban Land Institute’s Emerging Trends report.

The Urban Land Institute study, which ranks the top 20 cities across the nation, notes a high correlation between ranking and employment growth. In this area, “Seattle is experiencing terrific momentum in job growth, with tech companies taking up most of the well-located vacant space.” Amazon in particular is contributing to development with its construction of a three-tower campus in South Lake Union.

Here are additional highlights from the report:

  • Investors continue to be attracted to Seattle as a global center for the software industry;
  • Job growth for 2013 is projected at 1.2 percent;
  • Seattle continues to attract and accommodate a growing young adult population with Echo Boomers, or Gen Y, expanding by 20 percent over the past decade;
  • Companies like Amazon, Starbucks, Boeing, Microsoft, Nordstrom, the Gates Foundation, and Costco are hiring.

Bellevue is cited as an ancillary market that investors may find attractive. As transit is increasingly developed between Seattle and outlying cities, large suburban areas will benefit.

Existing-Home Sales Rise in October with Ongoing Price and Equity Gains

153553389Sales of existing homes increased in October, even with some regional impact from Hurricane Sandy, while home prices continued to rise due to lower levels of inventory supply, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 2.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.79 million in October from a downwardly revised 4.69 million in September, and are 10.9 percent above the 4.32 million-unit level in October 2011.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there was some impact from Hurricane Sandy. “Home sales continue to trend up and most October transactions were completed by the time the storm hit, but the growing demand with limited inventory is pressuring home prices in much of the country,” he said. “We expect an impact on Northeastern home sales in the coming months from a pause and delays in storm-impacted regions.”

The national median existing-home price2 for all housing types was $178,600 in October, which is 11.1 percent above a year ago. This marks eight consecutive monthly year-over-year increases, which last occurred from October 2005 to May 2006.

“Rising home prices have already resulted in a $760 billion growth in home equity during the past year,” Yun said. “Given that each percentage point of price appreciation translates into an additional $190 billion in home equity, we could see close to a $1 trillion gain next year.”

Distressed homes- foreclosures and short sales sold at deep discounts – accounted for 24 percent of October sales (12 percent were foreclosures and 12 percent were short sales), unchanged from September; they were 28 percent in October 2011. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 20 percent below market value in October, while short sales were discounted 14 percent.

Total housing inventory at the end of October fell 1.4 percent to 2.14 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.4-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 5.6 months in September, and is the lowest housing supply since February of 2006 when it was 5.2 months. Listed inventory is 21.9 percent below a year ago when there was a 7.6-month supply.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 3.38 percent in October from 3.47 percent in September; the rate was 4.07 percent in October 2011.

NAR President Gary Thomas says record low mortgage interest rates shouldn’t be taken for granted. “Even with rising home prices, we’ll continue to see favorable housing affordability conditions over the coming year, but they won’t last forever,” he said.

“Inflationary pressures are expected to build during the next two years. As a result, mortgage interest rates will also rise with inflation. Buyers who are currently held back by tight mortgage credit standards should work to improve their credit scores so they’ll be able to qualify for a mortgage while conditions are still favorable.”

With stringent mortgage underwriting standards, Thomas said it’s very important to understand credit issues and how credit scores work. “REALTORS® are a good source to learn about lenders with more reasonable terms and ways to increase your likelihood of obtaining safe and sound financing. Buyers can also visit NAR’s consumer website,Houselogic.com [2], and search for ‘credit score.’”

The median time on market was 71 days in October, little changed from 70 days in September, but down 26.0 percent from 96 days in October 2011. Thirty-two percent of homes sold in October were on the market for less than a month, while 20 percent were on the market for six months or longer.

First-time buyers accounted for 31 percent of purchases in October, compared with 32 percent in September and 34 percent in October 2011.

All-cash sales were at 29 percent of transactions in October, up slightly from 28 percent in September; they were 29 percent in October 2011. Investors, who account for most cash sales, purchased 20 percent of homes in October, up from 18 percent in September; they were 18 percent in October 2011.

Single-family home sales rose 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.22 million in October from 4.14 million in September, and are 9.6 percent above the 3.85 million-unit pace in October 2011. The median existing single-family home price was $178,700 in October, which is 10.9 percent higher than a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales rose 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 570,000 in October from 550,000 in September, and are 21.3 percent above the 470,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price was $177,500 in October, up 11.7 percent from October 2011.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 1.7 percent to an annual pace of 580,000 in October but are 13.7 percent above October 2011. The median price in the Northeast was $232,600, which is 4.6 percent above a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 1.8 percent in October to a level of 1.11 million and are 18.1 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $145,600, up 10.6 percent from October 2011.

In the South, existing-home sales increased 2.1 percent to an annual pace of 1.92 million in October and are 11.0 percent higher than October 2011. The median price in the South was $152,200, which is 8.2 percent above a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 4.4 percent to an annual level of 1.18 million in October and are 3.5 percent above a year ago. With much tighter inventory conditions, the median price in the West was $242,100, up 21.2 percent from October 2011.

For more information, visit www.realtor.org

Home Appraisals: What You Should Know

Understanding how appraisals work will help you achieve a quick and profitable refinance or sale of your home.

When you refinance or sell your home, the lender will insist that you get an appraisal, an opinion of the value of your home based on what similar homes in your area have sold for in recent months.

Here are five issues regarding the appraised value of your home, you should know.

1. An Appraisal Isn’t An Exact Science

When appraisers evaluate a home’s value, they’re giving their best opinion based on how the home’s features stack up against those of similar homes recently sold nearby. One appraiser may factor in a recent sale, but another may consider that sale too long ago, or the home too different, or too far away to be a fair comparison. The result can be differences in the values two separate appraisers set for your home.

2. Appraisals Have Different Purposes

If the appraisal is being used by a lender giving a loan on the home, the appraised value might be the lower of market value (what it would sell for on the open market today) and the price you paid for the house if you recently bought it.

An appraisal being used to figure out how much to insure your home for or to determine your property taxes may rely on other factors and arrive at different values. For example, though an appraisal for a home loan evaluates today’s market value, an appraisal for insurance purposes calculates what it would cost to rebuild your home at today’s building material and labor rates, which can result in two different numbers.

Appraisals are also different from competitive market analyses (CMA). In a CMA, a real estate agent relies on market expertise to estimate how much your home will sell for in a specific time period. The price your home will sell for in 30 days may be different than the price your home will sell for in 120 days. Because real estate agents don’t follow the rules appraisers do, there can be variations between CMAs and appraisals on the same home.

3. An Appraisal Is A Snapshot

Home prices shift, and appraised values will shift with those market changes. Your home may be appraised at $150,000 today, but in two months when you refinance or list it for sale, the appraised value could be lower or higher depending on how your market has performed.

4. Appraisals Don’t Factor In Your Personal Issues

You may have a reason you must sell immediately, such as a job loss or transfer, which can affect the amount of money you’ll accept to complete the transaction in your time frame. An appraisal doesn’t consider those personal factors.

5. You Can Ask For A Second Opinion

If your home appraisal comes back at a value you believe is too low, you can request that a second appraisal be performed by a different appraiser. You, or potential buyers, if they’ve requested the appraisal, will have to pay for the second appraisal. But it may be worth it to keep the sale from collapsing from a faulty appraisal. On the other hand, the appraisal may be accurate, and it may be a sign that you need to adjust your pricing or the size of the loan you’re refinancing.

Cost vs. Price Explained

Property_PricesWe have often talked about the difference between COST and PRICE. As a seller, you will be most concerned about ‘short term price’ – where home values are headed over the next six months. As a buyer, you must be concerned not about price but instead about the ‘long term cost’ of the home. Let us explain.

Yesterday, we reported that the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is projecting that mortgage interest rates will inch up over the next twelve months. On Monday, we explained that many experts are calling for home prices to also increase over the next year.

What Does This Mean to a Buyer?

Here is a simple demonstration of what impact certain changes would have on the mortgage payment of a home selling for approximately $200,000 today:

Top 10 ‘Turnaround’ Housing Markets–Seattle #5!

seattleWestern states continue to dominate, showing some of the fastest paces of recovery in the nation’s housing markets. With inventories falling, national median list prices increased 2.54 percent year-over-year during the third quarter, Realtor.com reports.

Anecdotally, the greater Seattle area, has seen price appreciation for months now. The lack of inventory is causing multiple offers in many areas!

The site released its rankings of the top 10 turnaround towns, based on third quarter housing data of median list price increases, inventory levels, and employment rates.

1. Oakland, Calif.

2. Sacramento, Calif.

3. San Jose, Calif.

4. San Francisco

5. Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, Wash.

6. Bakersfield, Calif.

7. Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Lompoc, Calif.

8. Phoenix-Mesa, Ariz.

9. Fresno, Calif.

10. Miami

View more information about what is making these housing markets some of the biggest turnaround housing markets in the nation at Realtor.com.

Fed Renews Vow to Keep Rates Low

ratesThe Federal Reserve acknowledged Wednesday that segments of the economy are looking up, particularly housing and household spending. However, the Fed said it will continue to press forward with its stimulus campaign — which includes a move that is lowering mortgage rates — until the economy shows more growth.

At its latest meeting, the Fed renewed its vow to keep rates near zero until mid-2015. It will also continue to buy $40 billion in mortgage-backed debt each month, a program known as “QE3,” which has helped to push mortgage rates into record-low territory in recent weeks.

"The committee remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions," the Fed said in a statement.

The Fed said that unemployment still remains high at 7.8 percent, the “fiscal cliff” looms at the end of the year, the global economy is struggling, and the U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of only 1.3 percent in the second quarter.

Source: “Fed Pledges to Maintain Stimulus,” The New York Times

Housing Numbers from NAR’s Existing Home Sale Report

orange-county-housing-marketThe National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) September Existing Home Sales Report revealed that sales declined modestly, but inventory continued to tighten and the national median home price recorded its seventh back-to-back monthly increase from a year earlier.

Total existing-home sales fell 1.7% but are 11% above the pace in September 2011.

Other findings revealed in the report:
  • Existing-home price: the national median was $183,900 in September, up 11.3 percent from a year ago.

  • Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales accounted for 24 percent of September sales (13 percent were foreclosures and 11 percent were short sales), up from 22 percent in August and down from 30 percent in September 2011.

  • Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 21 percent below market value in August.

  • Short sales were discounted 13 percent below market value in August.

  • Housing inventory at the end September fell 3.3 percent which represents a 5.9-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 6.0-month supply in August. Listed inventory is 20.0 percent below a year ago when there was an 8.1-month supply.

  • Time on market: the median was 70 days in September, unchanged from August, but down 30.7% from 101 days in September 2011.

  • First-time buyers accounted for 32 percent of purchasers in September, compared with 31 percent in August; they were 32 percent in September 2011.

  • All-cash sales were at 28 percent of transactions in September, up from 27 percent in August; they were 30 percent in September 2011. 

  • Investors, who account for most cash sales, purchased 18 percent of homes in September, unchanged from August; they were 19 percent in September 2011.

Single Family Homes and Condominiums and Co-ops

Existing Single-family home sales declined 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.21 million in September from 4.29 million in August, but are 10.8 percent higher than the 3.80 million-unit level in September 2011. The median existing single-family home price was $184,300 in September, up 11.4 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 540,000 in September, but are 12.5 percent above the 480,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price was $181,000 in September, which is 10.0 percent higher than September 2011.

Regional Numbers

Northeast: Existing-home sales fell 6.3 percent to an annual level of 590,000 in September but are 7.3 percent above September 2011. The median price in the Northeast was $238,700, up 4.1 percent from a year ago.

Midwest: Existing-home sales slipped 0.9 percent in September to a pace of 1.10 million but are 19.6 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $145,200, up 7.0 percent from September 2011.

South: Existing-home sales increased 0.5 percent to an annual level of 1.93 million in September and are 14.2 percent above September 2011. The median price in the region was $163,600, up 13.1 percent from a year ago.

West: Existing-home sales fell 3.4 percent to an annual pace of 1.13 million in September but are 0.9 percent above a year ago. With continuing inventory shortages in the region, the median price in the West was $246,300, which is 18.4 percent higher than September 2011.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, commented:

“Despite occasional month-to-month setbacks, we’re experiencing a genuine recovery. More people are attempting to buy homes than are able to qualify for mortgages, and recent price increases are not deterring buyer interest. Rather, inventory shortages are limiting sales, notably in parts of the West.”