Reluctant Sellers Hold Up the Market?

monopoly-houses-7109While home prices are making gains in many markets, many home owners continue to wait for home prices go up even further before wanting to list their homes for sale, Inman News reports. As such, inventory levels have been tightly constrained in many markets, resulting in shortages of available for-sale listings.

Negative equity is mostly at play in causing many would-be sellers to wait out the market longer. About 10.8 million home owners were underwater at the end of June, CoreLogic reports. Negative equity often delays home owners from selling because they need the down payment on their current home to purchase another home.

"Many [would-be sellers] are waiting for prices to increase more before they can sell, and some sellers are keeping their current homes as a rental investment and buying without selling," Tom Avent, a broker-owner at Tom Avent Real Estate in Fresno, Calif., told Inman News.

Eight out of 10 would-be sellers recently surveyed say they believe they can get a higher price for their home if they wait one to two years to sell, according to a survey of 816 home owners conducted by Redfin. In the survey, only 13 percent said that now is a good time to sell.

"The sellers want to sell high and buy the home for prices that were available six months ago,” Andrea Harrington, an agent at EWM Realty International in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., told Inman News. “When they realize the entire market trends up, they rethink their plans to sell since it may not be as economical."

Facing inventory shortages, some real estate professionals are even reaching out to home owners who are sitting on the fence about putting their home on the market.

"Many sellers are still not aware of how strong our market is," Charles Roberts, co-owner of Your Castle Real Estate who serves as a director on the Denver Board of REALTORS®, told Inman News. "They still think it’s a bad market to sell. Our job is to inform them about the market and explain to them that with a rising market, it has become a strong seller’s market and to walk through their options."

In many areas, it’s a seller’s market right now, and that surprises many home owners, adds Jason Lopez, a broker at Atlantic & Pacific Real Estate in the San Diego area.

“Now it doesn’t mean prices are skyrocketing like past cycles, but with the chance of multiple offers, it makes the process more appealing,” Lopez told Inman News.

Source: “Fence-Sitters in No Hurry to Sell,” Inman News

Morgan Stanley Makes Bold Prediction on Housing

housing-market-predictionsInvestment firm Morgan Stanley has high hopes for the housing market’s recovery this year and next.

"We expect to see 2012 end with an increase of 7 to 9 percent for the year in aggregate home prices after considering seasonality effects for the remainder of the year, with the possibility of a 10 to 12 percent increase on the bullish side and a 4 to 6 percent increase as the bear case," according to Morgan Stanley analysts in its latest Housing Markets Insight report. "We view the bear case outcome to be relatively less likely."

Morgan Stanley analysts say that home shoppers need to have more access to credit in order to finance their home purchases to keep the housing recovery strong. A tight lending environment has kept many would-be buyers out.

"Recent actions by the Federal Reserve, the commitment to keep interest rates lower for longer as well as the launch of an open-ended QE3, convince us that this low mortgage rate environment and the demand response for housing are likely to prevail for an extended period — well into the future," the Morgan Stanley analysts conclude.

Source: “Morgan Stanley Declares Housing Out of the Woods,” HousingWire

Will The Mortgage Forgiveness Act Be Extended?

helpAs the year winds down, we are getting more and more inquiries about the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007 and whether or not it will be extended past its original expiration date of December 31, 2012. This is important as people who are selling their home through a short sale may be faced with a tax liability if they don’t close by the aforementioned date.

Here is the way the IRS explains the tax liability:

“If you borrow money from a commercial lender and the lender later cancels or forgives the debt, you may have to include the cancelled amount in income for tax purposes, depending on the circumstances. When you borrowed the money you were not required to include the loan proceeds in income because you had an obligation to repay the lender. When that obligation is subsequently forgiven, the amount you received as loan proceeds is normally reportable as income because you no longer have an obligation to repay the lender. The lender is usually required to report the amount of the canceled debt to you and the IRS on a Form 1099-C, Cancellation of Debt.

Here’s a very simplified example. You borrow $10,000 and default on the loan after paying back $2,000. If the lender is unable to collect the remaining debt from you, there is a cancellation of debt of $8,000, which generally is taxable income to you.”

What does the Act accomplish?

Let’s go back to the IRS for the explanation:

“Normally, debt that is forgiven or cancelled by a lender must be included as income on your tax return and is taxable. But the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act allows you to exclude certain cancelled debt on your principal residence from income. Debt reduced through mortgage restructuring, as well as mortgage debt forgiven in connection with a foreclosure, qualifies for the relief.”

(For more information on the ACT from the IRS, click here)

This relief also applies to most short sales. Therefore, the question of whether or not the Act will be extended is crucial for anyone considering selling their house through the short sale process.

Will the Act be extended past the end of the year?

No one knows for certain. Diana Olick of CNBC recently reported on the issue:

“So what is the possibility of congress extending the tax relief? One Hill-watcher puts it at 60-40. The Senate Finance Committee passed a package of tax extenders right before the recess, including a one year mortgage relief extension, but leadership in the House of Representatives has not figured out how it wants to handle these extenders. With the looming ‘fiscal cliff,’ tax cuts are an increasingly tough sell. This particular extension does have bipartisan support, but that doesn’t always mean passage in Congress, especially around a presidential election.”

Without knowing whether the Act will be extended, we suggest anyone considering selling via the short sale process do it now.

Source: KCM

The Real Estate Market Today

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Home Ownership Rate Stands at 65.5%

home ownersAmericans still favor home ownership. The U.S. homeownership rate continues to remain around 65.5 percent, the U.S. Census Bureau reported late last week. The home ownership rate is nearly the same as it was in the second quarter of 2011 at 65.9 percent.

The Census Bureau also reported that vacancy rates for housing were 2.1 percent and vacancy rates for renting were 8.6 percent in the second quarter.

The home ownership rate peaked at 69.2 percent in 2004. Home owners outnumber renters in nearly 100 percent of the nation’s 3,095 counties evaluated by the Census.

Keweenaw County, located in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, posted one of the best home ownership rates: 89.8 percent.

Source: “National Home Ownership Rate Is Pegged at 65 Percent,” The Business Journals

House Prices: Experts Becoming More Optimistic

projectionsEach quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a

“distinguished panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts regarding their 4-year expectations for future home prices in the United States.”

Here are the latest survey results.

Price appreciation/depreciation expected over the next four years:

  • 2012: 2.31%
  • 2013: 2.44%
  • 2014: 3.25%
  • 2015: 3.43%

Fiserv also released a report projecting home prices to appreciate at an average of 3.7% annually over the next five years.

The average pre-bubble (1987-1999) annual appreciation was 3.6%

source: THE KCM CREW

Housing Market Report – RealTrends [video]

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