Was 2012 a Better Year for Real Estate Than 2011?

There are still those questioning whether the housing market is truly making a comeback. We have decided to graph home sales over the last two years based on the National Association of Realtor‘s Pending Home Sales Report. We believe the graph removes all doubt.

The methodology for the report as per NAR:

The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales; it coincides with a level that is historically healthy.”

source: by THE KCM CREW

House and Condo Sales by Region [INFOGRAPHIC]

source: KCM

5 Reasons to Buy a Home Now Instead of the Spring

orange-county-housing-marketBased on prices, mortgage rates and soaring rents, there may have never been a better time in real estate history to purchase a home than right now. Here are five major reasons purchasers should consider buying:

Supply Is Shrinking

With inventory declining in many regions, finding a home of your dreams may become more difficult going forward. There are buyers in more and more markets surprised that there is no longer a large assortment of houses to choose from. The best homes in the best locations sell first. Don’t miss the opportunity to get that ‘once-in-a-lifetime’ buy.

Price Increases Are on the Horizon

Prices were expected to bounce along the bottom this winter. However, many pricing indices (examples: CoreLogic, FHFA, LPS, Case Shiller) are reporting that prices are continuing to rise.

Rents Are Skyrocketing

Rents historically increase by 3.2% on an annual basis. A study issued earlier this year projects rent increases of 4% for the next two years. Trulia recently reported that rents this year have actually shot up by 5.4%.

Interest Rates Are Projected to Rise

The Mortgage Bankers Association has projected that the 30-year mortgage interest rate will be 4.4% by the end of 2013. That is an increase of approximately one full point over current rates.

Buy Low, Sell High

We would all agree that, when investing, we want to buy at the lowest price possible and hope to sell at the highest price. Housing can create family wealth as long as we follow this simple principle. Today, real estate is selling ‘low’. It’s time to buy.

source: KCM

What’s Really Driving the Rise in Home Prices?

Property_PricesThe Wall Street Journal recently cited five significant factors behind the rise in home prices, as numerous markets see significant year-over-year gains. The big price drives are:

1. The rise in housing affordability – which is drawing more buyers out into the market who are looking to cash in on low mortgage rates and fallen home prices compared to a few years ago.

2. The rise in household formation – which is expected to hit 1 million new households this year. That is up from an average of 570,000 over the last five years, according to data by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

3. The rise in rents – which has prompted more investors to purchase properties to rent out and more renters to second-guess why they are paying so much in rent when they could buy.

4. The decline in distressed sales and foreclosures – which has fallen significantly this past year. While distressed sales are still high by historical standards, they have fallen from their peaks in most markets, helping to alleviate the downward pressure on home prices in many areas.

5. Inventories of homes for-sale are at their lowest levels in nearly 50 years – and builders have cut back on construction and many home owners are waiting to sell until they can recover some equity on their properties.

Source: “Five Reasons Home Prices Have Been Rising,” The Wall Street Journal

Read More

Where Asking Prices Are on the Rise the Most

NAR’s InfoGraphic on Home Buyers and Sellers 2012

home buyers and sellers

Existing-Home Sales Rise in October with Ongoing Price and Equity Gains

153553389Sales of existing homes increased in October, even with some regional impact from Hurricane Sandy, while home prices continued to rise due to lower levels of inventory supply, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 2.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.79 million in October from a downwardly revised 4.69 million in September, and are 10.9 percent above the 4.32 million-unit level in October 2011.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there was some impact from Hurricane Sandy. “Home sales continue to trend up and most October transactions were completed by the time the storm hit, but the growing demand with limited inventory is pressuring home prices in much of the country,” he said. “We expect an impact on Northeastern home sales in the coming months from a pause and delays in storm-impacted regions.”

The national median existing-home price2 for all housing types was $178,600 in October, which is 11.1 percent above a year ago. This marks eight consecutive monthly year-over-year increases, which last occurred from October 2005 to May 2006.

“Rising home prices have already resulted in a $760 billion growth in home equity during the past year,” Yun said. “Given that each percentage point of price appreciation translates into an additional $190 billion in home equity, we could see close to a $1 trillion gain next year.”

Distressed homes- foreclosures and short sales sold at deep discounts – accounted for 24 percent of October sales (12 percent were foreclosures and 12 percent were short sales), unchanged from September; they were 28 percent in October 2011. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 20 percent below market value in October, while short sales were discounted 14 percent.

Total housing inventory at the end of October fell 1.4 percent to 2.14 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.4-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 5.6 months in September, and is the lowest housing supply since February of 2006 when it was 5.2 months. Listed inventory is 21.9 percent below a year ago when there was a 7.6-month supply.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 3.38 percent in October from 3.47 percent in September; the rate was 4.07 percent in October 2011.

NAR President Gary Thomas says record low mortgage interest rates shouldn’t be taken for granted. “Even with rising home prices, we’ll continue to see favorable housing affordability conditions over the coming year, but they won’t last forever,” he said.

“Inflationary pressures are expected to build during the next two years. As a result, mortgage interest rates will also rise with inflation. Buyers who are currently held back by tight mortgage credit standards should work to improve their credit scores so they’ll be able to qualify for a mortgage while conditions are still favorable.”

With stringent mortgage underwriting standards, Thomas said it’s very important to understand credit issues and how credit scores work. “REALTORS® are a good source to learn about lenders with more reasonable terms and ways to increase your likelihood of obtaining safe and sound financing. Buyers can also visit NAR’s consumer website,Houselogic.com [2], and search for ‘credit score.’”

The median time on market was 71 days in October, little changed from 70 days in September, but down 26.0 percent from 96 days in October 2011. Thirty-two percent of homes sold in October were on the market for less than a month, while 20 percent were on the market for six months or longer.

First-time buyers accounted for 31 percent of purchases in October, compared with 32 percent in September and 34 percent in October 2011.

All-cash sales were at 29 percent of transactions in October, up slightly from 28 percent in September; they were 29 percent in October 2011. Investors, who account for most cash sales, purchased 20 percent of homes in October, up from 18 percent in September; they were 18 percent in October 2011.

Single-family home sales rose 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.22 million in October from 4.14 million in September, and are 9.6 percent above the 3.85 million-unit pace in October 2011. The median existing single-family home price was $178,700 in October, which is 10.9 percent higher than a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales rose 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 570,000 in October from 550,000 in September, and are 21.3 percent above the 470,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price was $177,500 in October, up 11.7 percent from October 2011.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 1.7 percent to an annual pace of 580,000 in October but are 13.7 percent above October 2011. The median price in the Northeast was $232,600, which is 4.6 percent above a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 1.8 percent in October to a level of 1.11 million and are 18.1 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $145,600, up 10.6 percent from October 2011.

In the South, existing-home sales increased 2.1 percent to an annual pace of 1.92 million in October and are 11.0 percent higher than October 2011. The median price in the South was $152,200, which is 8.2 percent above a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 4.4 percent to an annual level of 1.18 million in October and are 3.5 percent above a year ago. With much tighter inventory conditions, the median price in the West was $242,100, up 21.2 percent from October 2011.

For more information, visit www.realtor.org

Young Adults Forming New Households

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Back in August, we identified young adults between 25-34 years old still living at home with their parents as a group that was about to enter the housing market. A recent Wall Street Journal article proves our thinking was correct. We have re-posted our original blog post and an update. – The KCM Crew

UPDATE

In a recent Wall Street Journal article, it was revealed that household formations dramatically increased the last 12 months:

  • Average Annual Formations during boom years – 1.25 million
  • Average Annual Formations 2008-2011 – 650,000
  • New Household Formations in last year – 1.15 million

As the article states:

“Americans are setting up house at the fastest rate in more than six years, an indication that recession anxiety, which prompted adult children to move in with their parents and single people to postpone marriage, is starting to ease… Rising household formation, which is tied to employment growth, means more students are finding jobs when they leave college, more adult children are leaving their parents’ homes and more couples feel confident enough about the future to tie the knot.”

OUR ORIGINAL POST

The Six Million 25-34 Year-Olds Still Living at Home

There is a tremendous opportunity in this demographic and we believe that this opportunity will make itself available in the near future.

The Opportunity: John Burns Consulting, in their newsletter this past December reported that there are nearly six million young adults between the ages of 25-34 living at home with their parents. This number represents almost a 50% increase from the four million living at home in 2003. Also Morgan Stanley, in their June edition of Housing Market Insights , explain that the biggest fall-off in homeownership rates occurs in the age group under 35 years old. This is an anomaly that we believe will correct itself over the next few years.

Why Act Now? Contrary to some press asserting the opposite, we believe that this segment of the population still has a strong belief in homeownership and are intending to act on their feeling. For example, a recent study by TD Bank reported 84% of today’s younger renting generation-ages 18-34-intend to buy a home. Also Eric S. Belsky, managing director at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University two months ago stated:

“Surveys consistently find that the overwhelming majority of young adults plan to own a home in the future.”

Belsky went on to say:

“Many would-be buyers have stayed on the sidelines waiting for the job outlook to improve and house prices to stop falling. But as markets tighten, these fence-sitters may begin to take advantage of today’s lower home prices and unusually low mortgage rates. With rents up, home prices sharply down, and mortgage interest rates at record lows, monthly mortgage costs relative to monthly rents haven’t been this favorable since the early 1970s.”

The 5 Things You Must Do to work this demographic.
  1. Reach out to this segment in your marketplace by offering free 1st Time Buyer seminars/webinars in which you can explain why now is the time to buy (for help doing this, you can check out a recent webinar we did for buyers)
  2. Populate your social media with articles and visuals on the subject
  3. Be able to intelligently discuss renting vs. buying in today’s market
  4. Be able to easily discuss the non-financial advantages of homeownership
  5. Be well versed on all mortgage programs aimed at a first time buyer (FHA for example)

source: KCM

Housing Inventory Shrinking Across Country [INFOGRAPHIC]

Invrentory-Map

Home Builders Feeling Better About Market Conditions

Awesome_SupervisionHome builder confidence for the new, single-family home market posted its seventh consecutive month gain, reaching its highest level since May of 2006, according to the November index by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo.

home_builder_graph

"Builders are reporting increasing demand for new homes as inventories of foreclosed and distressed properties begin to shrink in markets across the country," says NAHB Chair Barry Rutenberg. "In view of the tightening supply and other improving conditions, many potential buyers who were on the fence are now motivated to move forward with a purchase in order to take advantage of today’s favorable prices and interest rates." 

The monthly index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales, expectations for the next six months with sales, and buyer traffic.

"While our confidence gauge has yet to breach the 50 mark — at which point an equal number of builders view sales conditions as good versus poor — we have certainly made substantial progress since this time last year, when the HMI stood at 19," says NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "At this point, difficult appraisals and tight lending conditions for builders and buyers remain limiting factors for the burgeoning housing recovery, along with shortages of buildable lots that have begun popping up in certain markets."

Source: National Association of Home Builders