Multifamily production skyrockets in 2011, up 178% from 2008

multi family production Multifamily production skyrockets in 2011, up 178% from 2008

Up, up, and away

Without question, the multifamily sector has kept much of the real estate industry afloat in recent years as homeowners lose homes, rent apartments and make construction possible despite continued difficulty with construction loans. According to the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) Multifamily Production Index (MPI), the second quarter of 2011 continued to show improvement for the fourth quarter in a row.

The MPI jumped from 41.7 in the first quarter of the year to 44.4 in the second quarter, representing a marked 178 percent improvement from the MPI record low of 16.0 points in the third quarter 2008.

Cautious optimism

According to the NAHB, “The index provides a composite measure of three key elements of the multifamily housing market: construction of low-rent units, construction of market-rate-rent units, and construction of “for sale” units. The index and all of its components are scaled so that any number over 50 indicates that more respondents report conditions are improving than report conditions are getting worse. In the second quarter of 2011, a majority of developers saw improvements in the production of low-rent and market-rate units.”

“Multifamily rental construction is trending upward, and it is definitely the brightest sector in the broader housing market,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “However, the entire housing market continues to be very fragile and subject to many external pressures, including an ongoing shortage of financing for new projects.”

Developers expectations are cautiously optimistic regarding the remainder of 2011, noting market uncertainty (with builders and consumers) as a “dampening effect.”

“Even though multifamily is trending upward, production is still very low in a historic context and in the context of what we project is necessary to meet long-term demand,” Crowe said. With the number of multifamily starts and new “accidental landlords,” we do not share the certainty that demand for multifamily units will continue to rise indefinitely, but rather as a short term effect of the recession.

Could accelerating all foreclosures actually fix housing?

mortgage delinquencies Could accelerating all foreclosures actually fix housing?

Rising mortgage delinquencies

As the White House seeks methods do save distressed homeowners, a growing number of economists are advocating for the opposite, pushing for acceleration of “the inevitable” to expedite the bottoming out of the housing sector so a natural recovery can begin, according to CNN Money.

“Loans enter into foreclosure, but never come out,” Thomas Lawler, founder of Lawler Economic & Housing Consulting told CNN. “If this keeps going on, you have a continual overhang that never goes away.”

Shadow inventories

Some claim shadow inventories are a myth while others call it the plague of housing that threatens a slow recovery.

“They can’t be a glacier hanging over the market with everyone waiting for it to fall,” Jim Gaines, research economist at The Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University said to Fortune Magazine. “Those properties have to clear the market.”

What is the answer?

It is clear that the current regulated path isn’t working, just look at the difference over two years in the chart above. Could acceleration be the answer? What of the hundreds of illegal foreclosures happening every year and the homeowners who never anticipated being so far underwater? Could aiding homeowners help or would that slow down the inevitable bottoming out of the market so desperately needed before we recover? No one agrees on the way forward, but the graph above better change- quickly.

Foreclosed Home Owners Take Out Their Frustrations on Properties

damaged-foreclosure-homes-for-saleSome foreclosed home owners are taking out their anger on the homes they are forced to leave behind, smashing holes in the walls, scribbling graffiti everywhere, leaving piles of trash, and ripping out appliances.

More banks — facing a growing problem from trashed foreclosures — are opting to offer homes at big discounts rather than fix the repairs, which can send surrounding home values in the neighborhood spiraling down, experts say.

Real estate pro Nick Davis with RE/MAX Premier Group told the Tampa Tribune that he has seen some home values greatly diminish from foreclosed home owners who have trashed it. For example, he recalls one home that would have fetched $250,000 back in 2006 during the housing boom that would now sell for about $75,000 because it was trashed by the former owners.

"It looks like someone took revenge," Davis says about the home, which had holes in the wall, appliances ripped out, and piles of trash. "Unfortunately, we’re seeing more of this. We’ve seen cement in the plumbing systems, the air conditioners ripped out from the outside, wiring being removed."

BankruptcySome real estate professionals and lenders are even blaming the high number of real estate deals falling apart due to more homes being left in poor condition by the original owners.

Buyers "look at these homes and say, ‘If this is the damage I can see, what else did the home owner do to this place that I can’t see?’ " Davis says.

Some home owners facing foreclosure place the blame on banks for their woes so they leave behind a mess for the bank. But trashing a home can backfire. Some banks are saying they may even start taking steps to sue home owners for the cost of repairs, and law enforcement officials say home owners can be charged with vandalism as well as theft if they remove items that don’t belong to them from the home.

"Anything that came with the house needs to stay with the house," says Larry McKinnon, spokesman for the Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office in Florida. "You may think you’re getting back at the bank. But the bank may have the last laugh."

What is a short sale? [infographic]

You or someone your know, may be one of the nearly 23% of homeowners whose properties now are worth less than the underlying mortgage loan and you find yourself in a situation where you have to move (a new job, perhaps, or because you can no longer afford the payments on this house and are hoping to downsize), the only way to sell your house successfully is either pay the bank the difference between the sales price and your mortgage balance out of your own pocket… or convince the lender to accept less cash than you actually owe.

While a short sale may make sense for some, the pros and cons should be weighed carefully before you get the ball rolling. In this infographic, we walk you through the basics of short sales, who should consider one and the typical steps in the process.

ShortSale_final

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If you are someone you care about is wondering about the possibility of a short sale and if they are a candidate. Please call or email Emmanuel@EmmanuelFonte.com

What Foreclosures Cost the Community

foreclosureThe effects of a home foreclosure extend beyond the family losing its property. The costs—emotional and financial—extend to neighbors, communities and others, though estimates vary.

Lender: The Joint Economic Committee of Congress wrote in 2007 that foreclosures carry an average cost of about $78,000, while preventing a foreclosure costs about $3,300. Most of the expense ($50,000) is borne by the lender, which takes title to the home and must find a buyer.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said costs to lenders include lost principal and interest payments, tax and insurance on the property, maintenance and real estate commissions when a home is sold.

Homeowners: The congressional report put the average cost to homeowners at $7,200 for lost equity, moving expenses, legal fees and the like. They will likely take a hit to their credit score, which can affect jobs because some employers check credit scores before hiring or promoting workers. Lose a home, and you also lose the tax advantages of owning a home.

Local government: Communities can lose anywhere from a few hundred dollars to more than $30,000 on foreclosed homes, according to a study by the Urban Institute. That includes lost property taxes, unpaid utilities and costs for upkeep or demolition of a property. Vacant properties also can mean lower property values, cutbacks in government services and a rise in crime and blight.

Neighbors: Particularly for close neighbors, studies show a single foreclosure can lower home value anywhere from 0.6 percent to 1.8 percent. The Center for Responsible Lending put the average neighbor dollar loss at $5,800 to $8,700.

(c) 2011, Detroit Free Press.

9 Reasons to Buy Investment Property Now

questionsJ. Paul Getty famously said, “Buy when everyone else is selling and hold when everyone else is buying.” Many commercial brokers believe that present market conditions provide an unprecedented buying opportunity to lock in significant real estate investment returns. Despite the opinion of some real estate professionals, however, many investors remain on the fence. While each investor must carefully consider their own financial objectives and risk tolerance before jumping back into the market, we’ve listed a few reasons investors should consider in assessing today’s real estate purchase opportunities:

  1. 1031 Exchange Opportunity – Investors with low basis properties may utilize Internal Revenue Code §1031 to defer tax on the sale of one underperforming asset to acquire one or more discounted replacement properties that may enhance cash flow and provide higher long term investment returns.
  2. Attractive Purchase Prices – Many distressed sellers (and some banks) are selling investment properties at deep discounts and accepting offers that are below current replacement costs. Recent reports indicate that lenders are selling foreclosed properties (often referred to as ‘real estate owned’ or “REO” property) at an average discount of 28% below prices being paid for comparable non-distressed properties in the same market.
  3. Historically Low Financing Costs – The Fed’s stimulus efforts, such as QE2 (“Quantitative Easing 2”), have resulted in historically low interest rates, making the cost of debt service exceptionally attractive. Qualified real estate investors can take advantage of today’s low interest rates to bolster cash flow and lock in better long-term investment returns.
  4. Inflation Hedge – With many economists predicting that inflation will increase at some point in the future, hard assets, like investment real estate, can provide a hedge against the declining value of money in an inflationary environment. Additionally, ownership of leased real estate can provide an investor with increased income as rent rates also tend to rise in inflationary periods.
  5. Yield – Financial institutions are paying very low yields on money market accounts and other conservative investments. In contrast, many investment properties are generating returns in the 7-9% range, providing considerably better yields than many other competing investments.
  6. Less Competition – Foreign ownership of U.S. investment real estate is increasing. Foreign investors see U.S. real estate as a solid investment in a stable economy, and the lower value of the dollar has made U.S. real estate an even more attractive bargain. These two trends will increase demand, which will drive up prices on certain types of investment property. By buying now, investors can stay ahead of the competition.
  7. Desirable Product Classes – Some classes of investment property are experiencing considerably more demand than supply. For example, in the multi-family segment, demand for rentals has increased as foreclosures have mounted and there is little new multi-family construction in the pipeline to meet such increased demand. As a result, multi-family rents are increasing and many experts project this trend to accelerate.
  8. Worst Price Declines are Over – Property values nationally have declined by 30% or more since the market peak in 2006.  Many economists believe we are at an important pivot point where prices will stabilize and begin to increase (albeit at lower appreciation rates than in the past). If investors wait too long, they may find they are facing competing bids and higher prices to close. Buying before demand picks up in the nearly inevitable recovery locks in today’s bargain prices.
  9. Real Estate is Local – Despite national statistics about real estate prices, most investors are aware that real estate is local and supply/demand and investment returns are determined by local market conditions. Many investors are using 1031 exchanges to exchange out of areas that are not projected to perform well and into areas where the local economy is more robust and investment returns are more favorable.

how-set-renta-investment-propertyFinancial professionals tell their customers it is almost impossible to"‘time the market" and purchase investments at the very lowest point and later sell these same assets at near market peaks. The concept is fraught with many problems and, as a result, most financial advisors caution customers to not pursue this approach. Despite this advice, investors often wait until it’s too late to purchase and miss opportunities. Does it make sense for you?

Call me 206.713.3244 or email Emmanuel@EmmanuelFonte.com

Boeing-787 Dreamliner: Performance features

boeing

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How to Rebuild Your Credit After a Foreclosure or Short Sale

If you’re one of the millions of Americans who experienced either a foreclosure or short sales due the housing downturn, you might be left wondering where to go from here, when it comes to rebuilding your credit score.

Here is the information you must know about your credit, to best recover from a foreclosure or short sale.

Know How Things Ended

Though you may be relieved to have finally resolved your housing situation, don’t put it out of your mind just yet. Keith Gumbinger, mortgage expert forHSH.com says that knowing the final terms of the arrangement made with your lender plays a role in rebuilding credit. That’s because different defaulted home loan terms come with different ramifications to your credit score. Know whether you had a short sale (the lender allows you to sell the house for less than the balance on the mortgage, and may or may not require you to make up the deficiency), an involuntary foreclosure (you stopped making payments and the property, and potentially your assets, were seized), or you negotiated a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure (a voluntary process in which you “hand over” the deed to the lender, shortening the process and accompanying expenses), as well as the specific terms were agreed upon. When it comes to foreclosures and short sales, no two agreements are alike; the terms and conditions have different impacts on credit scores, how they are reported to the credit bureaus, and how long they take to “fall off.”

Confirm Where You Are Now

While short sales are often perceived as more “favorable” when it comes to defaulting on a home loan, FICO conducted a study simulating the aftermath of a foreclosure and a short sale, and revealed that in regards to credit score impact, there isn’t much difference between the two events. The real gauge, it seems, is in the starting credit score before the default took place.

FICO examined three hypothetical consumers with starting credit scores of 680 (customer A) 720 (customer B), and 780 (customer C). It found that despite whether the loan default was a short sale or foreclosure, customer C’s credit score was most impacted, indicating that the higher the credit score, the longer it takes to restore. Further, time is critical in rebuilding credit worthiness: a short sale with no deficiency balance will generally require at least three years before the credit score will increase. In the case of a foreclosure, the borrower must wait for at least seven years, and in some cases, up to ten, if a bankruptcy filing was involved.

Keep Credit Cards Under Control

After you have completed the foreclosure or short sale, request your credit report fromAnnualcreditreport.com, which allows you one free credit report each year. Confirm that the report does not contain any errors, or reflect old debts that were paid off, and report any disputes to Experian, TransUnion and Equifax immediately. Ornella Grosz, author of Moneylicious: A Financial Clue For Generation Y says that one way to add points to your credit score is by paying off or lowering your existing credit card balances, and that  “about 30 percent of your credit score is made up from keeping balances low. The lower your debt-to-income ratio, the better.” John Ulzheimer, Mint’s credit columnist, also addresses this the post What Kind of Debt Pay-Off Boosts Your Fico Score Most.

Set up automatic bill pay on all of your existing credit accounts to make certain that creditors are always paid on or before the due date (don’t play with grace periods when you’re trying to rebuild credit). Or use the “Bill Reminders” feature on your Mint.com account. If you have missed payments in the past, commit to starting good habits now. You can rebuild a score by paying every bill on time. On the contrary, skipped or late payments will reduce your credit score further.  Don’t attempt to raise your credit score by closing open credit lines, and know that removing the credit availability might actually hurt your score more after a short-sale or foreclosure, when access to new credit will be limited. (To potential lenders, closing the credit, even it you haven’t used it in years, makes it appear as though you are closer to being “maxed out” than you really are).

If you are left with no credit lines after the foreclosure or short sale and cannot find unsecured lines of credit, apply for a secured credit card, which are offered by many financial institutions and credit unions. Secured cards will require you to deposit funds with the creditor, in exchange for a credit card with a credit line of the same amount. (For example, if you put $500 down, that will be the amount of your secured credit line). If you use secured cards responsibly, they will help to slowly increase your credit score. Over time, the lender may raise your line of credit for “good behavior,” and eventually, you’ll be a candidate for unsecured credit again. However, Grosz cautions to read the fine print in the agreement for all secured cards, and confirm that you will not be charged additional fees for use.

Be Patient

Rebuilding credit after a short sale or foreclosure can be frustrating, but it is a process most impacted by being patient. Amber Stubbs, senior managing editor at Cardratings.com says “the more time passes, the less a black mark affects your credit, and you won’t be able to make a full recovery until the derogatory item is off your credit report. Most derogatory items, including foreclosures, fall off seven years after the last activity on the account. If you manage other accounts responsibly while you wait, you should be in good shape by the time the foreclosure disappears from your credit report.”

Stephanie Taylor Christensen is a former financial services marketer based in Columbus, OH. The founder of Wellness On Less, she also writes on small business, consumer interest, wellness, career and personal finance topics.

Just How Much Do We Need Our Credit Cards?

need-our-credit-cards