We're Back To Where We Were In 2007

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Hard to get too excited about this economic accomplishment, but it’s certainly better than the alternative.

Thanks to yesterday’s solid Q3 GDP report, the U.S. economy is finally back to where it was before it cratered four years ago. (After adjusting for inflation.)

And now for the caveat:

Yesterday’s Q3 GDP report was the first of three. The next two will be revisions. And they might be revised downward.

And then there’s the bad news: We’ve regained the lost ground in GDP, but, thanks to corporate downsizing, we’re producing that output with about 8 million fewer jobs

A guide to administration's new mortgage-refi plan

low-interest-refinance-mortgages-works-for-the-borrower-esBy DEREK KRAVITZ, The Associated Press

Two big questions loom over the Obama administration’s latest bid to help troubled homeowners: Will it work? And who would benefit?

By easing eligibility rules, the administration hopes 1 million more homeowners will qualify for its refinancing program and lower their mortgage payments — twice the number who have already. The program has helped only a fraction of the number the administration had envisioned.

In part, that’s because many homeowners who would like to refinance can’t because they owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth. But it’s also because banks are under no obligation to refinance a mortgage they hold — a limitation that won’t change under the new plan.

Here are some of the major questions and answers about the administration’s initiative:

What is the program?

The Home Affordable Refinance Program, or HARP, was started in 2009. It lets homeowners refinance their mortgages at lower rates. Borrowers can bypass the usual requirement of having at least 20 percent equity in their home. But few people have signed up. Many "underwater" borrowers — those who owe more than their homes are worth — couldn’t qualify under the program. Roughly 22.5 percent of U.S. homeowners, about 11 million, are underwater, according to CoreLogic, a real estate data firm. As of Aug. 31, fewer than 900,000 homeowners, and just 72,000 underwater homeowners, have refinanced through the administration’s program. The administration had estimated that the program would help 4 million to 5 million homeowners.

Why did so few benefit?

Mainly because those who’d lost the most in their homes weren’t eligible. Participation was limited to those whose home values were no more than 25 percent below what Home-Mortgage-Loans-bgthey owed their lender. That excluded roughly 10 percent of borrowers, CoreLogic says. In some hard-hit areas, borrowers have lost nearly 50 percent of their home’s value. Another problem: Homeowners must pay thousands in closing costs and appraisal fees to refinance. Typically, that adds up to 1 percent of the loan’s value — $2,000 in fees on a $200,000 loan. Sinking home prices also left many fearful that prices had yet to bottom. They didn’t want to throw good money after a depreciating asset. Or their credit scores were too low. Housing Secretary Shaun Donovan acknowledged that the program has "not reached the scale we had hoped."

What changes is the administration making?

Homeowners’ eligibility won’t be affected by how far their home’s value has fallen. And some fees for closing, title insurance and lien processing will be eliminated. So refinancing will be cheaper. The number of homeowners who need an appraisal will be reduced, saving more money. Some fees for those who refinance into a shorter-term mortgage will also be waived. Banks won’t have to buy back the mortgages from Fannie or Freddie, as they previously had to when dealing with some risky loans. That change will free many lenders to offer refinance loans. The program will also be extended 18 months, through 2013.

Related: White House tries new tack on housing

Who’s eligible?

Those whose loans are owned or backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, which the government took control of two years ago. Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee about half of all U.S. mortgages — nearly 31 million loans. They buy loans from lenders, package them into bonds with a guarantee against default and sell them to investors. To qualify for refinancing, a loan must have been sold to Fannie and Freddie before June 2009. Homeowners can determine whether their mortgage is owned by Fannie or Freddie by going online: Freddie’s loan tool is at freddiemac.com/mymortgage; Fannie’s is atfanniemae.com/loanlookup. Mortgages that were refinanced over the past 2½ years aren’t eligible. Homeowners must also be current on their mortgage. One late payment within six months, or more than one in the past year, would mean disqualification. Perhaps the biggest limitation on the program: It’s voluntary for lenders. A bank remains free to reject a refinancing even if a homeowner meets all requirements.

Will it work?

For those who can qualify, the savings could be significant. If, for example, a homeowner with a $200,000 mortgage at 6 percent can refinance down to 4.5 percent, the savings would be $3,000 a year. But the benefit to the economy will likely be limited. Even homeowners who are eligible and who choose to refinance through the government program could opt to sock away their savings or pay down debt rather than spend it.

How many homeowners will be eligible or will choose to participate?

Not entirely clear. The government estimates that up to 1 million more people could qualify. Moody’s Analytics says the figure could be as high as 1.6 million. Both figures are a fraction of the 11 million or more homeowners who are underwater, according to CoreLogic, a real estate data research firm.

Who will benefit most?

Underwater homeowners in the hard-hit states of Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada could be greatly helped. Many are stuck with high mortgage rates after they were approved for mortgages with little or no money as a down payment and few requirements. The average annual savings for a U.S. household would be $2,500, officials say.

When will it start?

Fannie and Freddie will issue the full details of the plan lenders and servicers on Nov. 15, officials say. The revamped program could be in place for some lenders as early as Dec. 1.

Federal Housing Agency Announces Changes to Mortgage Refinancing Program

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Yesterday the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac announced several changes to the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP), the details of which can be found here:http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/22721/HARP_release_102411_Final.pdf.

While the specific changes will not be released until November 15, 2011, below are some of the enhancements that were included in yesterday’s announcement:

  • No Loan-to-Value Limit:  Under the current program borrowers are limited to a maximum mortgage of 125% of the home’s current value.  By eliminating the loan-to-value limit the program will apply to more homeowners who are currently underwater on their mortgage.
  • Lower Loan Level Price Adjustments (”LLPA’s”) and no LLPA’s on loans with terms of 20 years or less; the end result will be a reduction in the costs of refinancing for most borrowers.
  • Increase in the number of loans eligible for Property Inspection Waivers.  Much like the LLPA issue, the end result will be a reduction in the cost of refinancing for more borrowers.

Given that the agencies will not release the final draft of the changes until the middle of November, right now we are in a “wait and see” mode as to the ultimate impact these changes will have.  However, from an initial glance the changes coming are a positive step in making the HAMP program available to more homeowners.

See Much The Homebuilder Stocks Have Rallied

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This morning, Citigroup analyst Josh Levin pointed out that inventory of available homes for sale has been collapsing, and that the media hasn’t paid attention to this major shift in housing market dynamics.

That may be true, but the market has definitely noticed something going on.

The homebuilder stocks have been on a rocket-ride since the beginning of the quarter, with XHB (the homebduiler ETF) rallying a ridiculous 32% since its low on October 3. It hit a low of 12.21 and is now at around 16.12.

This is a monster move in one of the most hated sectors in the world, and so obviously needs to be paid attention to.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-xhb-rally-2011-10?nr_email_referer=1&utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Money%20Game%20Chart%20Of%20The%20Day&utm_campaign=Moneygame_COTD_102411#ixzz1bjibHdWx

Senate backs plan to help Americans buy homes

first-time-home-buyers-7WASHINGTON — The Senate on Thursday backed a measure to help bolster the housing market by making it easier for people to afford a home in wealthier neighborhoods.

The Senate voted 60-38 to attach the proposal to a spending bill that the chamber will consider later this year. It would restore the size of the loans the government buys or insures to a maximum of $729,500 from the previous cap of $625,500.

The cap, known as the "conforming loan limit," determines the maximum size of loans the Federal Housing Administration and the government’s mortgage buyers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, can buy or guarantee.

The higher loan limit expired at the end of September and was touted as one of the Obama administration’s short-term plans to shrink the government’s role in the mortgage market.

But with the housing sector hurting the country’s economic recovery, lawmakers and the administration are looking for solutions.

"Getting our housing market moving again is one of the most important tasks facing the country," said Robert Menendez, a Democrat from New Jersey who introduced the bill amendment.

The majority of Senators agreed that the lower loan limit was making a weak housing market even weaker. "It makes it harder for middle class homebuyers to get credit when credit is tight," Menendez said.

It is unclear what will ultimately happen to the provision, given the deep divisions within the Democratic-led Senate and Republican-controlled House of Representatives. It would have to pass both chambers before President Barack Obama, a Democrat, could sign it into law.

Republican Senator Richard Shelby said the measure would help homebuyers who "do not need federal subsidies." "This is not a good use of taxpayer dollars," he said.

Republicans in the House have been trying to quickly unwind Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were seized by the government at the height of the financial crisis and now back the bulk of the mortgage market. But the administration has cautioned against removing the government’s support before the housing sector starts to stabilize.

Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters

Inflation Is A Thing Of The Past?

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The October 2011 Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released today puts the September year-over-year inflation rate at 3.87%, which is fractionally below the 3.96% average since the end of World War II.

For a comparison of headline inflation with core inflation, which is based on the CPI excluding food and energy, see this monthly feature.

For better understanding of how CPI is measured and how it impacts your household, see my Inside Look at CPI components.

For an even closer look at how the components are behaving, see this X-Ray View of the data for the past five months.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has compiled CPI data since 1913, and numbers are conveniently available from the FRED repository (here). My long-term inflation charts reach back to 1872 by adding Warren and Pearson’s price index for the earlier years. The spliced series is available at Yale Professor Robert Shiller’s website. This look further back into the past dramatically illustrates the extreme oscillation between inflation and deflation during the first 70 years of our timeline. Click here for additional perspectives on inflation and the shrinking value of the dollar.

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Should You Refinance Your Home?

refiWith the lowest mortgage rates in history now tempting anyone paying off a mortgage, many are asking the question, “Should I refinance?” There is no shortage of “rules of thumb” to help you get to an answer: some say you should refinance only if you can lower your interest rate by at least one percentage point; others point out that refinancing makes sense only if you plan to remain in the property for at least five to seven more years.

But there is another way to think about it: how will one mortgage affect your financial bottom line over the next five, ten or however many years you plan to live in your home, factoring in not only the effect on your cash flow, but your wealth, including mortgage equity built, at the end of that period. This, simply put, is achieved by calculating the so-called net benefit, a concept used by my financing partner to help users determine whether refinancing makes sense. The infographic below explains the concept of net benefit in more detail.

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A Cost Comparison of Home Ownership

To-Buy-or-Not-to-Buy-lgIn recent years, real estate has become something of a polarizing topic; there are those who argue that it’s still a worthy long-term investment with tangible benefits; and others who don’t see the value of owning a home, financial or otherwise. Regardless of which side of the argument you come out on, housing is a major part of our national economy. Furthermore, people are always going to need a place to live, so it’s a worthy discussion to be had.

There are a number of catch phrases that have become quite popular amongst real estate agents and media alike, such as “now is the time to buy” and “it’s a buyer’s market”. For some people, right now is a great time to buy a home, but for others, it’s not. The point is that buying a home is a personal decision based on each buyer’s unique circumstances. There’s no “one size fits all” model when it comes to real estate, so the best you can do is arm yourself with the right information so you can make the best decision for you.

TGChartImageWith this in mind, we thought it might be interesting to compare today’s real estate market with that of 2006 when housing was at its peak. Five years ago, home values were soaring, sales were frenzied, and home ownership was at an all-time high. Inventory levels simply could not keep up with demand, so bidding wars were commonplace and homes flew off the market in record time.

Today’s market is very different. It’s important to remember that all real estate is local, so markets can vary greatly – even within a single city – but there are some general trends that we’re seeing across the board. The first is home prices; very few areas were spared from the effects of declining prices. Inventory levels in recent years have also been higher than they were in 2006 and the average amount of time that it takes to sell a home is longer. All of this points towards this being a buyer’s market. Other buyer advantages include historically low interest rates and strong affordability. With this in mind, here are some interesting stats to consider:

  • The average interest rate on a 30-year-mortgage today is 4.13%(2) and in September 2006 it was 6.41%(2)
  • A $400,000 house today would have cost $642,650 in September 2006(1) which is a difference of $242,650. *The following scenarios assume these home prices.
  • Using the above home prices and interest rates, the monthly payment today would be $1,939.76 and in September 2006 it would have been $4,024.02 – a difference of $2,084.26 per month.
  • The $2,084.26 per month savings adds up to a total of $750,333 when multiplied over the term of a 30-year loan.
  • If today’s buyer took out a 30-year-loan at the current interest rate (4.13%), but made the same monthly payments as the buyer in 2006 ($4,024.02), the loan would be paid off in just over 10 years – the buyer in 2006 would still have almost 15 more years of payments.
1) calculated using FHFA figures for the West Coast in September 2011
2) from FHLMC website for September 2011

real-estate-mathThe math above is compelling, especially when you consider how much money is saved on compound interest over the life of a 30-year loan for the same home. But regardless of what the numbers show, buying a home is much more than a financial decision, it is one that is personal and should be reflective of each individual’s needs and circumstances. Unfortunately, we don’t have a crystal ball and cannot predict what interest rates are going to do or how the market is going to grow and change, but we do know people will always need a place to call home – and as long as that is the case – we will be here to help them.

If you are interested in how this market affects you and your choices, please call me at 206-713-3244 or email Emmanuel@EmmanuelFonte.com

When I’m 64! Setting Sights On Retirement

Baby boomers are far from babies now, which means as they age, they’re setting their sights on retirement. It might not be the easiest for many, though, as one-in-three Americans reports they don’t have savings for retirement past Social Security. So, what’s the plan for this enormous population? How can they get the most out of their money? For answers to these questions and more, check out CouponCabin.com’s latest infographic below.

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