Tim Geithner says housing financial reform is unfinished business

geithner_housingAs agencies and lawmakers fight over how to wind down the government’s involvement in propping up housing, Geithner comments that the job is behind schedule but signs of a consensus are evident.

Housing finance is “unfinished business”

Before the Chicago Economic Club today, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner spoke1 on the topic of the economy, opining that the nation has a long way to go to reform and recover the housing finance system, where the government controlled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac hold the majority of American home loans.

“The biggest source of unfinished business in the financial reform effort is in the housing finance area,” Geithner said. Much of his prepared speech focused on the major economic challenges, particularly noting that “President Obama inherited very large fiscal deficits, swollen to levels well beyond any experienced since World War II.”

Geithner added, “As we face the great political and economic choices ahead, remember how terrible the crisis was. Remember that Americans are still living with the damage that is the legacy of that crisis.”

The battle continues

Government infighting continues, however, regardless of any President’s legacy, as both sides of the aisle are tussling over how to wind down the government’s role in housing, particularly Fannie and Freddie whose conservator is the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Geithner said Fannie Freddie are not “a source of systemic risk now,” as taxpayers’ funds have propped up the mortgage giants.

“We are much further behind in laying out the future path of reform in the housing finance system and what should replace those institutions,” Geithner said, echoing the growing sentiment that there are signs of a bipartisan consensus for reforming the housing finance market.

“We have successfully navigated the most dangerous phase of the worst economic crisis in generations. We need to bring the same creativity and force and sense of national purpose to the challenges ahead. And that will require better choices from our political system. No economy can be stronger over time than the ability of its political leaders to come together to make tough decisions.”

Transcript of Geithner’s speech

First Time Buyers: The Stats

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created by KCM crew

FHA Clarifies New ‘Credit Dispute’ Rule

fha-updateThe Federal Housing Administration is giving borrowers a chance to provide an explanation on any disputed collection accounts in their history in order to qualify for an FHA-backed mortgage. The new FHA rule took effect April 1 and had some in the real estate community concerned that it would shut more buyers out of qualifying for mortgages.

According to the FHA’s new rule, borrowers with any credit disputes of more than $1,000 on their file will not be able to get a government-backed loan. Borrowers will either have to pay the remaining balance of the credit amount or show proof of entering into a payment plan for it.

The FHA is easing those restrictions somewhat, according to new instructions it provided to lenders, HousingWire reports. Borrowers will be exempt from the new rule if the credit amount is from a “life event.” This might include a medical bill, death, divorce, or unemployment, HousingWire reports.

"The borrower may provide a written explanation and documentation as it applies to all types of disputed and collections accounts if it makes sense, and is consistent with other credit information in the file," according to instructions provided to lenders.

Also starting on April 1, the FHA raised its insurance premiums, citing it as another effort to try to rebuild its emergency fund, which has fallen below the mandated amount Congress requires.

Source: “FHA Eases New Rule on Collections Accounts,” HousingWire (April 3, 2012)

More Generations Live Under One Roof

multi generationalA growing number of families are moving in together, which sometimes means that three generations are living all under one roof.

The sluggish economy has caused some households to expand, taking in more family members to trim housing costs.

According to Census Bureau data, 4.4 million households had three generations or more under one roof in 2010. That is a 15 percent increase compared to two years prior.

The “double-up” phenomena is particularly pronounced among adult children, who are increasingly moving back with their parents after college to curb costs. The number of 25-to-34 year olds living with their parents jumped by more than 25 percent between 2001 and 2007, according to Census data.

The larger household sizes are causing builders to take notice and redesign floorplans to accommodate multi-generational households. For example, Pulte Homes says it’s swapping out one of the garages in its two-car garage plans to allow for extra space in a home for a guest room. And Toll Brothers reports that it’s creating new floorplans to accommodate multiple generations, such as a guest suite with a kitchen added where a family room may have once been.

Source: “The New American Household: 3 Generations, 1 Roof,” CNNMoney (April 3, 2012)

Washington Job Forecast Is Positive

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Economic consulting firm Moody’s Analytics has forecasted U.S. job growth by geographic region and by industry. This interactive was updated March 7, 2012. We will update it each month.

This graphic shows actual job growth through fourth-quarter 2011 and Moody’s Analytics’ forecasted job growth for first-quarter 2012 through fourth-quarter 2015. It covers every state, the District of Columbia and 384 metro areas, broken down by fourteen industry sectors. The data are seasonally adjusted.

National, state and metro data through fourth-quarter 2011 are averages of monthly data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics‘ Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey.

The CES survey tracks the number of people employed full and part time by industry. It excludes proprietors, self-employed people, unpaid family or volunteer workers, farmworkers and domestic workers. Government employment covers only civilian workers. Employees are counted where they work, not where they live.

The CES survey is based on a sample of businesses and government agencies and is subject to sampling and nonsampling error. As a result, precise employment rankings are not possible for all geographies and industry sectors. Industry sector estimates, especially for smaller geographies or industries, can be volatile due to smaller sample sizes.

The data for first-quarter 2012 through fourth-quarter 2015 are forecasted by Moody’s Analytics. Demographic trends such as population growth, migration patterns, the age composition of populations, cost of living and business costs, and the global orientation of regional economies are key factors in its forecasts.

The forecasting model reflects the industry makeup of regions and the growth outlook for those industries. For example, the industrial Midwest takes into account the problems in the auto industry, and the relative success of the technology industry is reflected in forecasts for California’s Bay Area and Boston.

Moody’s Analytics’ model also takes into account policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government.

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click to interact with graph

American Migration [Interactive Map]

king_county_migrationAnother reason to be encourage here in King County. Migration is steady and healthy.

Close to 40 million Americans move from one home to another every year. Click anywhere on the map below: blue counties send more migrants to the selected county than they take; red counties take more than they send. Updated on February 24, 2012 | By Jon Bruner | More about the map >

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click map to choose another county

Housing Is ‘Awakening From Hibernation,’ Freddie Says

bear_stops_hibernatingAn improving economy is contributing to a gradual rebound in home prices across the country, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac’s 2012 Economic Outlook report, released Wednesday. But there is still a way to go in the road to recovery for the housing market, the report noted.

“The housing market is showing some signs of shaking off the depression-like conditions that have plagued it for much of the past few years,” according to the report. “As if awakening from hibernation, housing starts and home sales moved to higher levels of activity.”

In fact, the signs have prompted Freddie Mac to revise its forecast upwards for home sales and originations. One economic contributor that’s helping to stabilize housing: The drop in the unemployment rate to 8.3 percent, its lowest level in three years, according to the report.

“A variety of encouraging indicators suggest that the housing market may be feeling a nascent recovery … and more neighborhoods may see a stabilization in overall demand and housing values this spring,” says Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

Median home sale prices are up, despite a slight drop in new and existing home sales, Freddie Mac reports. About a half of the increase in housing starts has been for construction of rental apartments in multi-unit buildings to meet the increasing demand, the report notes. New rental construction, at its current pace, is expected to reach its highest level since 2005.

“Housing starts continue to run below net household formations [and will allow for absorption of existing vacant homes],” according to the report.

Source: “Freddie Mac: Economic Growth Expected to Stabilize Housing Market,” Dow Jones Newswires (March 28, 2012)

4 Reasons Why Our Seattle Real Estate Market Is In Good Shape

71dfvlgou0xgnej_400I was in a conversation with someone today asking about the future of real estate. There is so many horror stories that it is easy to get lost in the negative emotions, and miss the fundamentals of what constitutes a healthy real estate market.

Here’s what is going on in the greater Seattle area as it pertains to real estate. 4 reasons to have a positive outlook on our market.

  1. Inventory levels are as low as they have been in 7 years. Though there are a variety of reasons for this, the amount of homes impacts prices and consumer action.

  2. Due to the recession, there has been very little new construction over the past 5 years. Thought builders are coming back into the market, it takes time for the homes to be built. In the areas with quality new construction, builders are raising prices.

  3. Local economy is healthy and improving. Jobs (tech and others – Boeing has 32 years worth of planes to build) and migration (Washington is #5 in the Nation in migration rates) point to a pent-up demand and lack of inventory.

  4. There’s been a lot of talk about “Shadow Inventory” (homes that haven’t been foreclosed yet but will eventually be sold at auction). Lenders aren’t going to hurt their own best interests by “flooding the market”, it’s not going to happen. In most cases, the investors who purchase foreclosed properties are holding the properties as rentals. There will always be foreclosures; the smart money is on a balanced drip of homes into the marketplace.

A graph of Seattle for the past 7 years (by quarter).

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Are We In A Housing Recovery?

120548331Pundits and professionals give varying answers to the question of what a housing recovery looks like. According to the Housing Guru Blog, some see it as a return to the home values seen before the crash; others define it as the annual rate of over 8 million sales. And still another camp believes that neither picture is realistic.

Economist Paul Dales at Capital Economics notes that Americans ought to pay greater attention to a different indicator — accelerated home sales. CNN Money reports that existing home sales reached 4.26 million in 2011, up from 4.19 million transactions in 2010. And in the past six months, total homes sales have gone up by 13%. The positive growth in sales is a sign that the market is recovering. Additionally, if the benchmark of health is an inventory at or below 6 months, then January’s supply of 6.1 months is good news. But it gets complicated. Some analysts were disappointed by February’s numbers, particularly with the slight fall impending home sales by one half of a percent month-over-month. All eyes will be on March’s stats.

In spite of what appears to be a sluggish recovery, housing continues to be more affordable than renting, due in large part to cheap interest rates and low property prices. Trulia reports that in 98 out of the top 100 housing markets, buying is indeed more affordable, the two exceptions being Honolulu and San Francisco. Cities that have strong long-term growth prospects and limited land to expand should expect to see a rebound in prices over time, whereas older areas with limited growth may remain static. So there’s more than one way to look at recovery, and the expectation that housing prices regain pre-recession levels may be neither feasible nor desirable.

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