Inflation Since 1775 And How It Took Off In 1933

inflationYesterday at the American Economic Association’s 2013 Annual MeetingCarmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff offered a paper titled Shifting Mandates: The Federal Reserve’s First Centennial.

The paper included a cool chart of inflation since 1775.  The authors argue that inflation didn’t take off until the U.S. went off the gold standard in 1933.

From the paper:

It is probable that in 1913, while financial panics were not uncommon, high inflation was still largely seen by the founders of the Fed as a relatively rare phenomenon associated with wars and their immediate aftermath. Figure 1 plots the US price level from 1775 (set equal to one) until 2012. In 1913 prices were only about 20 percent higher than in 1775 and around 40 percent lower than in 1813, during the War of 1812. Whatever the mandates of the Federal Reserve, it is clear that the evolution of the price level in the United States is dominated by the abandonment of the gold standard in 1933 and the adoption of fiat money subsequently.    One hundred years after its creation, consumer prices are about 30 times higher than what they were in 1913. This pattern, in varying orders of magnitudes, repeats itself across nearly all countries.

inflation

source: BusinessInsider

Budgeting: A Visual Guide to How Small Cutbacks Lead to Great Savings

budget picBudgeting doesn’t have to be hard.You don’t even need to be tied down to the idea of “making a budget.” Saving money can be as simple as making a few small changes at home. This infographic shows you easy, convenient ways to save up to $8,800 a year, without ever feeling the pinch of a restrictive budget.Budgeting-How-Small-Cutbacks-Lead-to-Great-Savings

2012 United States and Canada Household Moving Migration Patterns

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source: AltlasVanLines.com

Real Estate as a Hedge Against Inflation

real estate inflationWhy do houses appreciate? It’s not because they get better with time because they most certainly don’t. They can actually get pretty worn out and require substantial repairs. So then what causes the famous appreciation so many people buy houses for?

Inflation.

The CNN news headline on TV this morning was “America’s economy held hostage!” Merry Christmas everyone, we’re all doomed. At least that seems to be the talk now that the holidays are over and consequently we have nothing better to focus on except this thing they call the Fiscal Cliff. If you haven’t heard that term you are obviously living in hole. It’s on every news channel, in every paper, and I’m actually surprised more sitcoms haven’t made fun of the potential loom that hangs over us.

What is Inflation and Why Do We Need a Hedge?

HedgeWhat does the Fiscal Cliff mean for all of us? I really don’t know nor am I going to try to analyze it here. I am certainly going to hope for the best but I wouldn’t question you if you say we are all doomed either. I do know one thing though: more than ever, I know it’s time for me to be in control of my money. I don’t claim to be a financial expert by any stretch but I do know that if inflation is going to continue, which follows right along with this Fiscal Cliff idea, I want to be smart with my money by keeping it as protected against inflation as I can.

Thinking in terms of Inflation for Dummies, inflation basically means:

  1. More money is created
  2. The value of the dollar goes down
  3. Therefore prices go up

I have $100. The government prints more money. What I can now buy with my $100 is what I could have bought with only $80 before the new money was printed. Translate that to a real-world example: A gallon of milk in 1970 cost roughly $1.15. Today a gallon of milk is about $4.00.

Hello, inflation, it’s nice to meet you.

There are a lot of factors in thinking about where the safest places for your money are. Stocks, CDs, banks, real estate, commodities, under your mattress, in outer space…everyone has different opinions. I’m not here to say what is right or wrong about each option, but I am here to explain how real estate can protect against this little witch we call inflation.

How Real Estate Can Fight Inflation

Real estate is one of the few assets that react proportionately to inflation. As inflation occurs, housing values go up and rents go up. Can you then see why owning real estate may be a good thing? If not, let’s put this into perspective with a simple hypothetical example.

In 2012, you buy a house for $100,000. After the world doesn’t end that year and the government begins to drive off the Fiscal Cliff, the financial markets become a mess and inflation is in full-bloom for the next 10 years. Now 10 years later, because of inflation, this same house is worth $180,000. You now own an $180,000 house that you only had to pay $100,000 for! Sounds like a deal to me. You basically have $80,000 in free dollars now.

Inflation: The Landlord’s Friend?

Let’s take this up another notch. Instead of living in the house yourself, you decide to rent it out and you begin collecting $1,000/month in rent. At $1,000/month you net $300 after the mortgage and other expenses. At the end of a 10-year stint with no inflation, you would have pocketed $36,000 in passive income (woot!). However, thanks to the same inflation that jumped the house’s value over those 10 years, you had to increase the monthly rent by $100 every other year. This would put the amount of passive income you pocketed at $50,000 instead of $36,000 (double-woot!). Although that $50,000 doesn’t take into account any increases to property taxes, insurance, etc., so l am going to put it back down at $45,000 before someone argues me on that one. Regardless, inflation has just put a nice extra chunk of cash in your pocket! $9,000 specifically in this case.

One property in only 10 years, thanks to inflation, has put $89,000 in your pocket you wouldn’t have otherwise had. Actually, it would be more than that once you consider how much you reaped in tax benefits as well, but I’m trying to keep it simple.

Note: Going along with the idea of trying to keep it simple, I acknowledge that I have ignored a lot of factors here associated with appreciation, taxes, income and expenses, but the point is to focus solely on the impact of inflation and nothing else. I also didn’t go with any particular % inflation either but rather used simple numbers to show the point.

If inflation occurs, real estate is one of the only inflation-adjusted assets other than commodities. While most of the population believes real estate is a risky investment, I believe real estate is one of the only safe investments left given our continuing financial crisis.

source: BiggerPockets

What is Ahead for Housing?

kids at home

5.9 Million young adults living with their parents! This trend is out of line with historical norms. As the economy continues to improve, we will see this number change.

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The reality is that those young adults DO want to own their own home. The dream of home ownership has been impacted by the economic challenges faced over the past few years. This desire will come to fruition moving forward.

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The data also tells us that those young adults are forming households and getting back out on their own. Human nature desires for autonomy and the ability to set up our own place.

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Many have made the argument that renting is better than owning. While for some that may be true depending on their location, time they will be in said location, life circumstances, the numbers have swung back to owning as the way to go for many.

While no one wants to return to the frenzy of 2003-2005, we are seeing in many markets a flip towards a seller controlled market. Buyers need to be ready to pull the trigger when the right place is available for them.

Let me know how I can help. Email me.

source: KCM

Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.8 Percent in Washington State

Washington UnemploymentHurrah! November’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 7.8 percent in Washington State, and according to Governor Chris Gregoire’s office this represents both "the first time the unemployment rate has dropped below eight percent since January 2009" and "the largest one-month decline in thirty-five years."

The county-by-county numbers for November aren’t out yet, but here’s how things looked for this state’s counties in October:

Washington Unemployment

The State of Seattle Survey

WSW_SeattleSurvey_Infographic

Weber Shandwick’s Third Annual ‘State of Seattle’ Survey polled 500 local residents to find out their perceptions of the city, including the economy, civility, culture and the media.

Source: Visual.ly

Seattle ranks No. 7 for investment, development, homebuilding

7Seattle ranks No. 7 in the nation for investment, development, and homebuilding, according to the Urban Land Institute’s Emerging Trends report.

The Urban Land Institute study, which ranks the top 20 cities across the nation, notes a high correlation between ranking and employment growth. In this area, “Seattle is experiencing terrific momentum in job growth, with tech companies taking up most of the well-located vacant space.” Amazon in particular is contributing to development with its construction of a three-tower campus in South Lake Union.

Here are additional highlights from the report:

  • Investors continue to be attracted to Seattle as a global center for the software industry;
  • Job growth for 2013 is projected at 1.2 percent;
  • Seattle continues to attract and accommodate a growing young adult population with Echo Boomers, or Gen Y, expanding by 20 percent over the past decade;
  • Companies like Amazon, Starbucks, Boeing, Microsoft, Nordstrom, the Gates Foundation, and Costco are hiring.

Bellevue is cited as an ancillary market that investors may find attractive. As transit is increasingly developed between Seattle and outlying cities, large suburban areas will benefit.

Existing-Home Sales Rise in October with Ongoing Price and Equity Gains

153553389Sales of existing homes increased in October, even with some regional impact from Hurricane Sandy, while home prices continued to rise due to lower levels of inventory supply, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 2.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.79 million in October from a downwardly revised 4.69 million in September, and are 10.9 percent above the 4.32 million-unit level in October 2011.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there was some impact from Hurricane Sandy. “Home sales continue to trend up and most October transactions were completed by the time the storm hit, but the growing demand with limited inventory is pressuring home prices in much of the country,” he said. “We expect an impact on Northeastern home sales in the coming months from a pause and delays in storm-impacted regions.”

The national median existing-home price2 for all housing types was $178,600 in October, which is 11.1 percent above a year ago. This marks eight consecutive monthly year-over-year increases, which last occurred from October 2005 to May 2006.

“Rising home prices have already resulted in a $760 billion growth in home equity during the past year,” Yun said. “Given that each percentage point of price appreciation translates into an additional $190 billion in home equity, we could see close to a $1 trillion gain next year.”

Distressed homes- foreclosures and short sales sold at deep discounts – accounted for 24 percent of October sales (12 percent were foreclosures and 12 percent were short sales), unchanged from September; they were 28 percent in October 2011. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 20 percent below market value in October, while short sales were discounted 14 percent.

Total housing inventory at the end of October fell 1.4 percent to 2.14 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.4-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 5.6 months in September, and is the lowest housing supply since February of 2006 when it was 5.2 months. Listed inventory is 21.9 percent below a year ago when there was a 7.6-month supply.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 3.38 percent in October from 3.47 percent in September; the rate was 4.07 percent in October 2011.

NAR President Gary Thomas says record low mortgage interest rates shouldn’t be taken for granted. “Even with rising home prices, we’ll continue to see favorable housing affordability conditions over the coming year, but they won’t last forever,” he said.

“Inflationary pressures are expected to build during the next two years. As a result, mortgage interest rates will also rise with inflation. Buyers who are currently held back by tight mortgage credit standards should work to improve their credit scores so they’ll be able to qualify for a mortgage while conditions are still favorable.”

With stringent mortgage underwriting standards, Thomas said it’s very important to understand credit issues and how credit scores work. “REALTORS® are a good source to learn about lenders with more reasonable terms and ways to increase your likelihood of obtaining safe and sound financing. Buyers can also visit NAR’s consumer website,Houselogic.com [2], and search for ‘credit score.’”

The median time on market was 71 days in October, little changed from 70 days in September, but down 26.0 percent from 96 days in October 2011. Thirty-two percent of homes sold in October were on the market for less than a month, while 20 percent were on the market for six months or longer.

First-time buyers accounted for 31 percent of purchases in October, compared with 32 percent in September and 34 percent in October 2011.

All-cash sales were at 29 percent of transactions in October, up slightly from 28 percent in September; they were 29 percent in October 2011. Investors, who account for most cash sales, purchased 20 percent of homes in October, up from 18 percent in September; they were 18 percent in October 2011.

Single-family home sales rose 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.22 million in October from 4.14 million in September, and are 9.6 percent above the 3.85 million-unit pace in October 2011. The median existing single-family home price was $178,700 in October, which is 10.9 percent higher than a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales rose 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 570,000 in October from 550,000 in September, and are 21.3 percent above the 470,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price was $177,500 in October, up 11.7 percent from October 2011.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 1.7 percent to an annual pace of 580,000 in October but are 13.7 percent above October 2011. The median price in the Northeast was $232,600, which is 4.6 percent above a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 1.8 percent in October to a level of 1.11 million and are 18.1 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $145,600, up 10.6 percent from October 2011.

In the South, existing-home sales increased 2.1 percent to an annual pace of 1.92 million in October and are 11.0 percent higher than October 2011. The median price in the South was $152,200, which is 8.2 percent above a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 4.4 percent to an annual level of 1.18 million in October and are 3.5 percent above a year ago. With much tighter inventory conditions, the median price in the West was $242,100, up 21.2 percent from October 2011.

For more information, visit www.realtor.org