What’s Behind Falling Housing Inventories?

orange-county-housing-market_thumb.jpgHome prices are increasing across the country as the number of homes for-sale continues to fall. But at a time when buyer demand is picking up, why is inventory still so low?

Inventories fell to 1.82 million at the end of last year, a 21.6 percent drop from one year earlier, the National Association of REALTORS® reports.

The Wall Street Journal recently highlighted several reasons behind the dropping inventories, including:

  • Sellers hesitant to sell: About 22 percent of home owners with a mortgage are still underwater, owing more than their home is currently worth. Home owners don’t tend to sell unless a life-changing event occurs when they’re underwater because they don’t want to take a loss on the sale of their house. CoreLogic data shows that inventories are the most constrained in areas with the highest number of underwater borrowers.
  • Not enough equity to trade up: Often times, home owners rely on the equity from their home to make a down payment on their next home. With fewer home owners seeing equity in their houses, they may not have enough money to move into a pricier home, which is constraining the would-be “trade up” buyer from moving.
  • Investors continue to snatch up properties: Investors are snapping up properties, but they’ve changed their strategy from past years, which is also constraining inventories. Now they’re holding onto properties and turning them into rentals instead of rehabbing properties and flipping them for profit. This is keeping fewer homes on the market.
  • Banks are slowing down foreclosures: Banks have new rules to meet with the foreclosure process, and it’s causing them to move at a slower pace in foreclosing on homes. Banks also are showing a preference for short sales and loan modifications, which are curbing the number of foreclosed homes on the market.
  • Builders are doing less building: Housing starts were at record lows from 2009 through 2011 so there’s less inventory being added to the market. A rebound in the new-home market has only recently started to occur.

Source: “Six Reasons Housing Inventory Keeps Declining,” The Wall Street Journal

Why The Price Of Your Home Will Keep Going Up

real-estate-inflation_thumb.pngToday’s existing home sales number was a little weaker than expected.

But have no fear, the housing comeback train continues.

Calculated Risk shows the number of months worth of existing home supply (red line). And that number continues to drop.

Which means: The price of your home is going to go up, as inventory gets tighter.

home prices.jpg

The Ten Commandments of Home Buying

164ASPbue973894bevA friend recently asked me for mortgage advice. I explained how to shop around for a good rate, and then I added my catchphrase: “You didn’t ask, but…”

Like anyone involved in the world of finance, I’ve seen a lot of serious mortgage trouble in the last few years. Even though the days of jumbo loans with no proof of income are long gone, it’s still a homebuyer’s responsibility to make sure that taking on a mortgage doesn’t put them in the financial danger zone.

So, I told my friend, before making the leap, to work through the following checklist and make sure you’re on the good side of each rule.

Now, nobody’s perfect, and if your online dating profile says you’re looking for a financially prudent partner who fulfills every qualification below, you’ll stay lonely. “You obviously can’t do all the things on your list,” says Jane Hodges, author of Rent vs. Own.

But whenever someone has come to me in danger of losing their house, they’ve ignored nearly every single rule, including the most important one: In Mint’s recent money mistakes survey, 20% of you admitted to spending more than 30% of your income on housing.

And since January is all about fixing those pesky Money Boo Boos, and paying too much for housing is definitely a big money mistake, let’s talk about the ten commandments of home buying:

1. Don’t bite off more mortgage than you can chew

The classic lending guideline says your principal, interest, property tax, and insurance (PITI) should amount to no more than 28% of your gross income.

Obviously, that’s an arbitrary number. Your financial world won’t explode if you stretch to 29% or 33%.

But an outsized mortgage payment is going to bite you sooner or later. As we’ve seen again and again over the last four years, lenders aren’t cuddly and understanding. They just want you to make your payments, month after month.

There’s also the duration of the mortgage to consider. “Another metric is your age,” says Hodges. “If you’re 55 and a first-time buyer, you better be getting a 15-year loan, right?”

2. Have at least one steady income in the family

It’s not 2006 anymore, and banks are a lot more scrupulous about checking to see if you have any income before shoveling a houseload of money in your direction.

But it’s still your responsibility to make sure you have a steady paycheck to go with your steady mortgage payment.

3. Carry few or no other debts

A reasonably sized mortgage quickly becomes an unreasonable burden when you mix it with student loans, car loans, and credit card debt.

The traditional lending guideline says that your mortgage payment (yes, including interest, tax, and insurance) and all your other debts should add up to 36% of your income or less.

Again, I’ve had people show me their monthly budget, and 70% of their income was going to debt repayment. That can’t end well.

4. Keep a big buffer

On top of debt repayment, you have other non-negotiable bills every month: utilities, insurance, a basic level of food and clothing, and maybe a tuition payment. Then there are discretionary expenses: saving, dining out, entertainment, travel, etc.

In their book, All Your Worth, Elizabeth Warren and Amelia Warren Tyagi recommend that you keep your non-discretionary expenses to less than 50% of your take-home income.

Like the other percentages we’ve been throwing around, this one isn’t magic, but it’s a nice guideline. When too much of your income gets sucked into required expenses, you lose flexibility.

A brief period of unemployment, a medical emergency, or a car repair can turn into a financial disaster that ultimately costs you your house.

5. Have an emergency fund

If you have a well-stocked emergency fund now, don’t drain it to fund a down payment. If you don’t have one, you’re not ready for a mortgage, no matter how perfect a Cape Cod you just toured.

6. Have good life, disability, and health insurance

If you’re uninsured or underinsured, you’re in no position to buy a house, unless you’re sitting on a giant pile of money. Are you?

7. Bring a 20% down payment

Small down payments lead to big problems. Reuters’ Felix Salmon crunched the numbers last year and found that mortgages with a 15%-20% down payment were more than twice as likely to become delinquent as mortgages with a 20% down payment for most years before the financial crisis.

Lower down payments did much worse. His conclusion: “So, let’s all remember this chart the next time anybody claims that you can have a safe mortgage with a low down payment. Because the fact is that you can’t.”

8. Don’t use home equity as part of your retirement plan

Home equity is great—that’s why you should bring a big down payment. But it’s also undiversified, subject to the ups and downs of the real estate market, and hard to quickly turn into cash.

It’s fine to have your retirement savings plan reflect the fact that your mortgage will be paid off in retirement and your ongoing housing costs will be low (although, you’ll still be on the hook for maintenance, property tax, and insurance).

If you’re assuming your house will appreciate at a lavish rate and you’ll be able to cash out later when you downsize, think again: over the long term, house prices rise at about the rate of inflation, according to the Case-Shiller index.

9. Be prepared to settle down

Unless you’re prepared to stay in your house for seven to ten years, the costs of buying and selling are likely to swamp any price appreciation.

Put more simply: If you move a lot, you’re better off renting. And most people underestimate how soon they’ll want to (or need to) move. Look at your past behavior and be realistic.

10. Check the price-rent ratio for signs of a bubble

A couple of times a year, Trulia.com looks at housing markets nationwide and declares them under-, over-, or well-priced based on the historical price-rent ratio, which is just the price of a house divided by the annual rent for an equivalent house.

During the housing bubble, prices in many markets rose to absurd levels by this standard: People were buying $500,000 houses that would have rented for, say, $20,000/year.

In retrospect, this obviously wasn’t going to work out. Prices in most markets are now sane (ratio of 15 or less), but you should still look at the neighborhood level. My Seattle neighborhood, for example, is still looking a little hot.

Source: Matthew Amster-Burton via: Mint.com

Census: Americans Are Moving More

moving-boxesAmericans are on the move again—at the highest level since before the recession. About 3.9 percent—or 11.8 million—of Americans moved to a different county in 2011, according to newly released Census data.

While the number is improving, the percentage is still low by historical standards, but it is inching off record lows seen in 2009 and 2010. In 2010 and 2009, moves to different counties were about 3.5 percent—the lowest level since the government started tracking such data in 1948.

When people move between counties, they’re usually relocating due to jobs, according to Census demographers.

The 2011 increase is “one of the many indicators showing that the worst of the recession is probably over and we’re starting to inch back,” William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, told The Wall Street Journal.

The populations moving the most are 25-to-29 year olds—who have been “stymied by the weak labor market” in recent years, Frey says. “They’re the ones who’ve been stuck at home because of the economic downturn,” Frey said. “The so-called lost generation seems to have stirred a little bit.”

Also, another demographer notes, that retirees began to move more in 2011.

The states that gained the most in population in 2011 due to domestic moves were Florida and Nevada, according to the Census data.

Source: “Americans Get Moving Amid Torpid Recovery,” The Wall Street Journal 

Who Wants to Own a Home?

BeliefinHomeownership

via: KCM

Obama: Housing “Clearly Turning a Corner”

home_prices_rebound_thumb.jpgThe housing market has shown signs of “bottoming out nationally and clearly turning a corner,” according to the Obama Administration’s December Housing Scorecard.

Home values are inching up while home sales remain strong. Some home price indexes are showing values up 5.6 percent and 4.3 percent from year ago levels, according to the Scorecard.

“As the December housing scorecard indicates, our housing market is continuing to show important signs of recovery,” says Michael Berman, a HUD senior adviser.

Home inventories are falling, reaching a 4.8-month supply in December compared to November’s 5.3-month supply.

Americans are continuing to see the amount of equity in their homes increase. American home equity grew to $8 trillion in December but is still below the nearly $14 trillion in equity reached prior to the recession.

More than 6 million mortgage modifications and other kinds of housing assistance have taken place between April 2009 and November 2012, helping more home owners stay in their homes, according to the administration.

The housing scorecard is a comprehensive report on the national housing market, released every month by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Department of Treasury.

To view the complete Housing Scorecard, visit www.hud.gov/scorecard.

Source: The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and “December Housing Scorecard Points to Improving Home Equity and Prices,” Mortgage News Daily

Shadow Inventory and Its Impact on Prices

shadow-inventory_thumb.jpgMany analysts differ on what impact shadow inventory will have on house values in 2013. Some warn that these distressed properties will still play a major role in limiting appreciation. Others believe that the increases in buyer demand will more than offset the increase in supply. The only thing on which everyone agrees is that there will be millions of distressed properties that will need to be liquidated over the next few years. How these properties are handled will have an effect on the impact they will have on values.

According to the National Association of Realtors, foreclosures sell at a 20% discount while a short sale sells at a 16% discount. Therefore, a short sale has less of a negative impact on prices compared to a foreclosure. Obviously, if the mortgage is modified, no sale takes place and there is no impact on surrounding home prices.

The U.S. Treasury Department just issued their latest OCC Mortgage Metrics Report which reports on how these distressed properties are currently being handled. Here is a graph showing how these properties are being processed now as compared to a year ago.

Distressed-Propertysource: KCM

U.S. Census, HUD Release American Housing Survey

countryThe U.S. Census Bureau and HUD recently released the 2011 American Housing Survey, a biennial comprehensive national housing survey that provides data on housing inventories, demographics, home improvements, mortgages, and more.

The 2011 survey indicates that almost 20 percent of new home owners chose their neighborhood based on convenience to the workplace.

The poll of the nation’s 115 million occupied homes also reveals the median size of single-family detached and mobile residences to be 1,800 square feet — versus 2,200 square feet for newly built homes — and the median year of construction for owner-occupied units to be 1976.

Sixty-four percent of homes have three or more bedrooms and 52 percent have two or more bathrooms. In terms of accessibility, 64 percent have floors with no steps between rooms, 48 percent have entry-level bathrooms, and 36 percent have entry-level bedrooms.

The survey also found that 20 percent of recent movers located their current homes through a real estate agent, 17 percent through Realtor.com, and 16 percent by word-of-mouth. Additionally, households spend about 24 percent of their household income on housing.

This data and more is now available for the first time through the U.S. Census Bureau’s American FactFinder data access tool.

Source: “HUD and Census Bureau Expand Access to Include Housing Info” National Mortgage Professional 

Bellevue could see another boom

bellevue_waIt’s been a little over four years since downtown Bellevue has seen an office tower go up. The 15-story Summit III project was left unfinished in 2009 when the recession hit. But some developers believe that this Eastside hub will soon become the site of large-scale construction, reports the Seattle Times.

Five residential projects with more than 1,100 units and three office towers featuring 1.5 million square feet are in the works for 2013. Kemper Development plans to expand Lincoln Square by building two office towers to create additional office and retail space as well as a 120-room hotel and 200 condos or apartments. CEO Kemper Freeman says that construction should start in the early summer.

Demand for living and office space in the region is on the rise, and developers are focusing on downtown Bellevue, with its relatively low office-vacancy rate, as a site for construction. There’s growing concern that Seattle neighborhoods are getting overbuilt. Traffic, tolls on Highway 520, and talk of additional tolls on other roadways are causing commuters to consider living in the city where they work.

Lisa Picard, executive vice president of developer Skanska USA, says that the Bellevue “has really developed into an urban center.” The second largest city center in Washington made CNN Money’s 100 Best Places to Live list for 2011. What used to be a suburban business district has transformed itself into an urban destination with retail shops, restaurants, and cultural amenities.