Archives for 2012

Where Are House Prices Actually Headed?

We are often asked where we believe home values are headed. To answer this question we want to quote three separate reports that have been published in the last 60 days: the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), the Urban Land Institute Real Estate Consensus Forecast (ULI) and the Demand Institute’s Report (DIR): The Shifting Nature of U.S. Housing Demand. Here are their projections:

by THE KCM CREW

Millennials Want to Be Home Owners, Too

Generation-YThe conventional wisdom today around the millennial generation, often defined as having been born between 1980 and 2000, seems to be that they aren’t as interested in owning a home as previous generations. Recent stories in the media go so far as to claim that the dynamic, diverse people in this group prefer the flexibility of renting to the stable, long-term arrangement provided by home ownership.

However, this is a misinterpretation of present-day trends, said Dr. Glenn Crellin, a professor at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies, University of Washington. He was part of a panel of experts at a session on real estate demographics Friday morning at the National Association of REALTORS®’ Midyear Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo in Washington, D.C.

Crellin acknowledged that the home ownership rate among the under-35 population in 2011 was just under 40 percent (compared to the national rate of approximately 65 percent), and that home ownership levels had declined more sharply among those under 35 than among other groups since the housing bubble burst. But he said many in the media were drawing the wrong conclusions from that data.

"Recently, headlines showed the general press believed we were entering an era of rentership," Crellin said. "[As a result], they believe home ownership doesn’t deserve the kind of support it had been given."

But Crellin pointed out that the rate of home ownership for those under 25 today is actually higher than that of the under-25 baby boomers in 1970. Also, a recent poll of Washington State University students that he conducted showed that 48 percent of them expect to buy a home in the next 3-5 years.

While the willingness of young people to purchase a home is certainly there, the financial means to do so may not be, Crellin said. The underlying story, then, is not one of shifting mindsets but rather changing economic factors. "[The recession] is probably going to delay purchases, but it’s not the permanent transition that the national press is predicting," he explained.

The millennials, also known as echo boomers and generation Y, present a long-term opportunity for the housing market but are having a very difficult time in today’s economic climate, said Selma Hepp, an NAR research economist. They have a higher unemployment rate than that of other generations, and the ones who do have jobs are often plagued by little to no income growth and heavy consumer and student-loan debt.

Hepp outlined high-, medium-, and low-performing scenarios for housing between now and the end of the decade. In the low-performing scenario, which assumes continued economic struggles and difficulties in obtaining financing, people who were between 15 and 34 years old in 2010 will form 15.6 million new households by 2020. In the high-performing scenario, people from that same group would form 18.8 million new households by 2020 — approximately 10 million of which would be new home owners. In the medium-performing scenario, which falls between the previous two on the spectrum, 17.1 million new households would come into being.

Even if the high-performing scenario comes to fruition, the kind of housing available today presents a challenge. Hepp pointed out that the senior population, including many baby boomers would release more housing that it would absorb over the next two decades. But a great deal of these homes — suburban properties built when energy costs were much lower and traditional, "nuclear" families were much more common — aren’t in high demand among millennials and gen Xers.

Members of these generations are interested in more urban communities that have cultural and commercial amenities close by, ideally within walking distance. Consequently, it’s not surprising that demand for owned-attached houses, such as condos and townhomes, are expected to grow 15 to 20 percent between now and 2030. That will make it the fastest-growing residential category in terms of demand by far, said Professor G. Stacy Sirmans of Florida State University.

— Brian Summerfield, REALTOR® Magazine

How LinkedIn Works

Linkedin

Siri, why don’t you understand me? [infographic]

siri-why-dont-you-understand-me

Cocoon House Expressively Combines Lines, Curves & Green

It starts with a fluid central volume with operable circular windows and skylights for seasonal weather-based temperature flexibility, then spawns a series of additional indoor and outdoor spaces.

Scheduled to be constructed on the coast of South Korea by 2015, Planning Korea let each sub-structure reflect its function with respect to the whole, including party rooms, work spaces, bedrooms and lounges that jut out at angles in each direction.

A green roof also varies in height, rising toward one end of the site and sinking into a swimming pool with a view toward the ocean, reinforcing a sense of motion and creating additional views at various points along the way.

What A View: Penthouse Bathroom Sits on 15-Floor Elevator Shaft

There is certainly a joke in here somewhere about being scared into going to the bathroom, but you can certainly sort that out for yourself having seen this death-defying floor.

Hernandez Silva Arquitecto saw an opportunity in a strangely-unused secondary elevator shaft when updating this top-floor residence, illuminating the void below and situating it (oddly) square with the bathroom above.

Nearly as remarkable as the downward view is the lack of pizzazz in the space itself – a simple red-and-white color scheme is almost comically ordinary when compared to the jaw-dropping glass floor.

Life Hacks

hacks

11 Problems Music Can Solve

musicMusic is a splendid thing. It can cheer you up when you’re sad, make you dance like a fool, and allow you to drown out the world when you need to. But music has its scientific uses, too. The new documentary Alive Inside details how dementia patients react positively when given iPods filled with their old favorite songs. The music seems to help them “come alive” again. While listening to familiar songs, many of the documentary’s patients can sing along, answer questions about their past, and even carry on brief conversations with others.

“Music imprints itself on the brain deeper than any other human experience,” says neurologist Oliver Sacks, who appears in the film. “Music evokes emotion, and emotion can bring with it memory.”

The documentary follows recent studies showing that music can improve the memories of dementia patients, and even help them develop new memories.

Here, a look at some other things music has been known to “cure”:

1. Low Birth Weight

Babies born too early often require extended stays in the hospital to help them gain weight and strength. To help facilitate this process, many hospitals turn to music. A team of Canadian researchers found that playing music to preemies reduced their pain levels and encouraged better feeding habits, which in turn helped with weight-gain. Hospitals use musical instruments to mimic the sounds of a mother’s heartbeat and womb to lull premature babies to sleep. Researchers also say that playing calming Mozart to premature infants significantly reduces the amount of energy they expend, which allows them gain weight.

It “makes you wonder whether neonatal intensive care units should consider music exposure as standard practice for at-risk infants,” says Dr. Nestor Lopez-Duran at child-psych.org.

2. Droopy Plants

If music helps babies grow, can it do the same thing for plants? Dorothy Retallack says yes. She wrote a book in 1973 called The Sound of Music and Plants, which detailed the effects of music on plant growth. Retallack played rock music to one group of plants and easy listening music to another, identical group. At the end of the study, the ‘easy listening’ plants were uniform in size, full and green, and were even leaning toward the source of the music. The rock music plants had grown tall, but they were droopy, with faded leaves, and were leaning away from the radio.

3. The Damaging Effects of Brain Damage

Of the 1.5 million Americans who sustain brain damage each year, roughly 90,000 of them will be left with a long-term movement or speech disability. As treatment, researchers use music to stimulate the areas of the brain that control these two functions.

When given a rhythm to walk or dance to, people with neurological damage caused by stroke or Parkinson’s disease can “regain a symmetrical stride and a sense of balance.” The beats in music help serve as a footstep cue for the brain.

Similarly, rhythm and pitch can help patients sing what words they can’t say. A study of autistic children who couldn’t speak found that music therapy helped these children articulate words. Some of these kids said their first words ever as a result of the treatment.

“We are just starting to understand how powerful music can be. We don’t know what the limits are.” says Michael De Georgia, director of the Center for Music and Medicine at Case Western Reserve University’s University Hospitals Case Medical Center in Cleveland.

4. Teen Loitering

Public libraries, malls, and train stations already know this: Teenagers typically don’t like classical music. In fact, they dislike it so much that “it sends them scurrying away like frightened mice,” says the LA Times. The theory is that when the brain hears something it dislikes, it suppresses dopamine, “the pleasure chemical.” And as teenagers’ moods fall, they go elsewhere to find something to bring it back up.

So if you want the neighbor kids to get off your lawn, turn up the Tchaikovsky.

5. Hearing Loss

OK, maybe music can’t cure hearing loss, but it may help prevent it. A study of 163 adults, 74 of them lifelong musicians, had participants take a series of hearing tests. The lifelong musicians processed sound better than non-musicians, with the gap widening with age. “A 70-year-old musician understood speech in a noisy environment as well as a 50-year-old non-musician,” explains Linda Searling at the Washington Post.

6. A Broken Heart

Not the kind caused by rejection, but the kind caused by a heart attack. Music can help patients who are recovering from heart attacks and heart surgery by lowering blood pressure, slowing the heart rate and reducing anxiety. As a preventative, try listening to “joyful” music, or songs that make you feel good. Research says listening to songs that evoke a sense of joy causes increased circulation and expanded blood vessels, which encourages good vascular health.

7. Poor Sport Performance

In 2005, a UK study found that listening to music during sports training can boost athletic performance by up to 20 percent. That’s roughly equal to the boost some athletes get from illegal performance-enhancing drugs, except music doesn’t show up on a drug test. For best results, try music with a fast tempo during intense training and slower songs during cooldown.

8. Grumpy Teens

In a 2008 study, researcher Tobias Greitemeyer wanted to study how lyrics impacted teenagers’ attitudes and behavior. To do so, he exposed one group of teens to “socially conscious” songs with a positive message, like Michael Jackson’s “Heal the World.” Another other group listened to songs with a “neutral” message. The researchers then “accidentally” knocked over a cup of pencils. The group listening to positive songs not only rushed to help more quickly, but picked up five times as many pencils as the other group.

9. Illiteracy

A 2009 study comparing two groups of second graders from similar demographics suggests learning music boosts reading abilities. The only major difference between the two groups was that one learned music notation, sight-reading and other skills, while the control group did not. Each group was tested for literacy before and after the school year. The end-of-year scores for the control group improved only slightly from their beginning of the year scores, while the kids with a music education scored“significantly higher,” especially on vocabulary tests.

10. Sluggish Alcohol Sales

Are you a wine store owner suffering from an overstock of German vino? Try pumping some German tunes through your store. A 1999 study showed that doing so boosted German wine sales, and similarly, playing French music boosted French wine sales. Customers said they were completely oblivious to what music was being played.

11. Wine Snobbery

Ever purchased a bottle of wine with recommended listening printed on the bottle? Well, makers of cheap wine may want to consider that tactic. A group of researchers say certain types of music can “enhance” the way wine tastes by up to 60 percent. In a study, wine-drinkers rated white wine as 40 percent more refreshing when it was accompanied by “zingy and refreshing” music (“Just Can’t Get Enough” by Nouvelle Vague was their go-to zingy song). The taste of red wine was altered 60 percent by “powerful and heavy music” like Orff’s “Carmina Burana.”

“The tongue is easy to dupe.” says Jonah Lehrer at Wired.

Now if you’ll excuse me, I have some $8 chardonnay that needs a little help from Tina Turner.

(via)

Music Review: Jon Hamar “Here After”

Jon' s picsLast month was National Jazz Month – I went back to a disc I hadn’t listened to for a while. The composer/performer is a close personal friend as well as a recipient of the Golden Ear Awards "Best Emerging Artist!" I won’t pretend that I am completely objective.

On His album “Here After”, Jon is both in control and creative. Unlike most virtuosos, he’s not interested in showing you just how great he is (although he is!). He serves the music and keeps the band together. In my years of playing with him, he never once asked to solo, yet he shows just how lyrical he can be when given the floor. On “Theme for Frances”, you’ll been taken back to a time before drum machines, when musicians had to have an internal groove.

My suggestion—go to www.JonHamar.com and take a listen. I’m confident you’ll want your own copy. It is music you’ll listen to multiple times and still find it revealing something new. Rumor has it that there is a new CD about to come out. Totally recommended!