Archives for May 2012

With the recession technically over, many questions have circulated about the future of housing and whether the concept of homeownership will forever be changed in the United States. Well-known psychotherapist, Dr. Robi Ludwig partnered with Coldwell Banker Real Estate to explore the feelings Americans have on the value of the home and homeownership now, compared to before the economic downturn.

The Psychology of the Home Post-Recession

“After any major fallout like a financial downturn, it’s natural to examine and sometimes alter the way we think about fundamental issues in our lives,” said Dr. Robi Ludwig “So it makes sense that this survey shows we are re-thinking what passed for conventional wisdom during the ‘boom years’. Instead of taking things for granted, people are protective of their jobs, homes and futures,” she explained. “And now that we’re picking up the pieces, we’re seeing a psychological shift. Instead of looking at homes through the eyes of an economist, we’re realizing that a home doesn’t solely equate to financial return or measure only to a mortgage amount. Instead the home is the emotional center of our lives, and it remains a critical component of who we are.”

• A majority of U.S. adults (79 percent) indicate the recession has caused society to rethink the concept of homeownership.
• In fact, 84 percent of U.S. adults agree more people took owning a home for granted before the recession, and nearly three-quarters (72 percent) said they feel like Americans have a greater respect for it now than they did before the recession.
• Seventy-five (75) percent of U.S. adults agree that due to changes in the housing market and/or economy there has been an overemphasis on the financial value of a home rather than the emotional value of a home.

How the Recession Has Caused Americans to Re-examine the Value of Their Home

“There’s no doubt that housing has been in the eye of the economic storm,” said Jim Gillespie, chief executive officer, Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC. “However, our work with Dr. Ludwig underscores that Americans remain bullish on homeownership and have not forgotten the inherent, emotional reasons that make our homes precious to us – in tough times or not. People are simply and rightly being more mindful about what they need and what they can afford, and are more carefully considering when to become homeowners.”

The survey strongly indicates that people are re-evaluating their needs vs. wants when purchasing a home. Ninety (90) percent of U.S. adults agree that some people purchased more expensive homes than they should have before the recession. Meanwhile, 86 percent of Americans agreed that people are more closely evaluating how much home they can truly afford now, compared to before the recession.

Home Renting vs. Buying a Home: It’s Far More than a Financial Decision

“Renting offers many people a suitable temporary solution, but in the long run, owning a home appeals to our innate desire for having things we can call our own, while providing a connection to the community around us,” said Dr. Ludwig. “Homeownership is a commitment; it’s about being rooted, which is one of our human instincts. I was encouraged to see that so many respondents recognize that commitment to a home, just like in a relationship, can often bring immense satisfaction.”

The survey found homeownership is part of the American Dream and that the United States becoming a “rent-based” society does not appear plausible:

• Ninety-one (91) percent of Americans agreed that owning a home is part of the American Dream (93 percent of homeowners, and 89 percent of renters).
• Eighty-three (83) percent of renters said that they want to own a home someday.
• Despite the economic challenges so many have faced, 94 percent of homeowners agreed that they are glad they own a home.

Why Homeownership is a Pillar of Success for So Many Americans

“Homeownership provides a stable environment that is not dictated by the whims and rules of a landlord,” Dr. Ludwig said. “We and our children flourish in secure environments. The feeling you get when you step through your front door or pull into your driveway is indescribable and priceless and the same holds true for our children who crave stability. While I know that financial hardships during the recession clearly have impacted many households, it is clear that the emotional value of a home is still strongly recognized.”

The survey found a high percentage (95) of parents / legal guardians agreed that it is important for their children to own a home someday; and 74 percent feel it’s absolutely essential / very important.

Additionally, more than three-quarters of homeowners (78 percent) said that owning a home is one of their greatest achievements, and 85 percent of U.S. adults (which includes both homeowners and renters) agreed that they always dreamed of owning a home.

How Our Homes Play a Role in Our Personal Identity

“People universally understand what it feels like to ‘be at home,’ and homeownership is an intrinsic element in our society”, said Dr. Ludwig. “The ability to alter colors, make minor cosmetic alterations and structural changes are so important to showcasing our personalities. And one of the reasons people feel so strongly connected to the home is because it is in many ways a reflection of who they are.”

Seventy-one (71) percent of U.S. adults agree that their home is a reflection of their identity, with homeowners being significantly more likely to agree with this statement than renters (74 percent, compared to 67 percent of renters).

A video of Dr. Robi Ludwig discussing this topic more in-depth can be found at http://youtu.be/c9wwQuJY4mg.

The first quarter of 2012 was the best first quarter for real estate in five years, and pending contracts suggest that the second quarter of 2012 will be the best second quarter in five years, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said this morning at the Residential Economic Update during the NAR Midyear Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo.

Moreover, he said the second half of this year could be even better than the first, in part because of continued increases in rental costs and record affordability of homes. "Renters are getting squeezed, and they don’t want to rent anymore," Yun explained. "This could be the year we see the release of pent-up demand."

Home prices have been skipping along the bottom for about a year now, Yun said, a trend that has drawn investors into the market. These investors have helped housing through a couple of difficult years and partly mitigated the dysfunctional mortgage market.

"Right now is the time to buy low," he said. "Investors are coming in to take advantage. Second homes started to recover nicely last year because of investors."

However, home values are poised for a rebound as more traditional buyers move back into the market, Yun said. In fact, this has already started to happen in areas such as Phoenix and Miami, which have seen year-over-year (March 2011 to March 2012) double-digit percentage increases in home prices.

As real estate improves, consumer psychology around home ownership will change, he added. Coupled with the recent — if relatively modest — job growth and stock market gains, conditions are right for a sustained housing recovery.

Future Challenges

Nonetheless, there are issues that could restrain a turnaround in housing. Mortgages are still too hard to come by, the shadow inventory — while declining — remains historically high, and price inflation is rising "above the Fed’s comfort level," Yun said.

To address that last problem, the Federal Reserve will likely raise rates in 2013 and 2014. Yet Yun contends a modest rise in interest rates wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing for the housing market. That’s because an increase in rates would cause financial institutions to focus their mortgage servicing departments on purchase loans instead of refis.

The biggest challenge, though, remains the murky political and regulatory environment, particularly the repeated threats from legislators and policymakers to alter or eliminate the mortgage interest deduction. Additionally, the country is racing toward a "fiscal cliff" on Jan. 1, 2013, the date by which a compromise federal budget must be approved. If this is delayed, there will be automatic government spending cuts, which would probably create a fallout effect in the financial markets.

U.S. Migration Patterns

In a presentation preceding Yun’s, Fed Economist Raven Molloy went over data that showed migration within the United States had fallen across practically all demographic categories since the 1980s. This has significant implications for real estate, as a decline in the number of people moving around within the country can translate into a decline in home-purchase activity.

There were no sharp moves downward in internal migration during the recession, which suggests the trend is not connected to the housing market or macro-economic cycles, Molloy said. If this was the case, migration would likely increase in the next few years as the job market improves and household formation picks up. Instead, it could remain flat or fall as the economy recovers.

In his presentation, Yun said this trend, which doesn’t have a clear source, is a problematic development.

"It’s troubling," he said. "We want to have a very dynamic society where people can move up and trade up."

— Brian Summerfield, REALTOR® Magazine